College football Week 12 preview Huge stakes for Tennessee Georgia

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By Week 12, it's all about survival. We think we know who's making the College Football Playoff, and we think we know the pecking order in each conference race, and if you're one of those teams involved, you're just trying not to screw it up.

In 2014, the first year of the four-team CFP, Week 12 saw No. 3 Florida State barely beat unranked Miami, No. 4 TCU barely beat 3-7 Kansas, No. 6 Arizona State fall to 5-5 Oregon State, No. 8 Ohio State barely beat No. 25 Minnesota and No. 14 Arizona barely beat unranked Washington. Throw in a major top-five result -- No. 5 Alabama over No. 1 Mississippi State -- and we had a shake-up that was nearly a major shake-up.

In the years that followed, Week 12 gave plenty more top teams jump scares -- Notre Dame barely beating Boston College in 2015 and Navy in 2017, Florida going to OT with Florida Atlantic in 2015, Ohio State barely beating Michigan State in 2016 and Maryland in 2018, Michigan almost losing to Illinois in 2022 and Maryland in 2023. Losses are rare, but scares are constant. And look! Each of the top four teams in the CFP rankings (Oregon, Ohio State, Texas and Penn State) is on the road this week! Plus, No. 6 BYU is only a small favorite, and in the week's biggest game, No. 7 Tennessee is a road underdog.

I can feel it: This is going to be a funky week. Here's everything you need to follow in a dangerous Week 12. (All times are Eastern; lines from ESPN BET.)

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There are three one-loss teams and five two-loss teams in SEC play. The best conference in college football is also the messiest at the moment, and with at least five to six SEC teams harboring semi-legitimate CFP hopes, now's really not the time to find yourself either in the morass of two-loss squads (if you're Tennessee) or trying to stand out with three losses (if you're Georgia).

Tennessee could make a complicated race awfully simple with an upset win in Athens. The Vols would be 6-1 in the SEC and needing only a win over Vanderbilt to clinch a spot in the SEC championship game, likely against the winner of Texas-Texas A&M. But Georgia has won 28 straight home games, the most in school history and the most of anyone in FBS since Clemson's 2016 to 2022 run. The Bulldogs have shown some serious offensive flaws in recent weeks, but they still tend to be Georgia at home.

Quarterback Carson Beck and the Georgia offense really do seem broken at the moment, though. Over the past three games -- defense-driven wins over Texas and Florida and a dire loss to Ole Miss -- the Dawgs have produced just three touchdown drives of more than 36 yards. The defense has set them up beautifully on plenty of occasions, but if left to its own devices, the offense is coming up short.

Over these three games, the Dawgs rank 77th in third-down conversion rate (38.1%), 95th in points per drive (1.8), 101st in percentage of plays gaining 10 or more yards (17.3%), 102nd in percentage of plays gaining zero or fewer yards (10.1%), 121st in yards per play (4.7), 109th in yards per non-sack carry (4.2), 107th in yards per dropback (5.2) and 128th in turnover rate (4.3%). That is the opposite of playoff worthy. Georgia is committing all the turnovers of a high-risk offense without any big plays whatsoever.

Now, two of these three games came against teams in the defensive SP+ top five. And it certainly hasn't helped that running back Trevor Etienne has been limited in recent weeks and freshman Nate Frazier seems to be the only healthy Bulldogs back. But this is Georgia! Annual title favorite Georgia! The offense should never be this ineffective. And now comes another top defense in Tennessee and the Dawgs won't have Etienne who is out with an injury. The Vols force the most three-and-outs in the country and are second in success rate* allowed, second in points allowed per drive, third in yards allowed per play and first in yards allowed per non-sack carry. On paper, they're better than the Ole Miss defense that just held Georgia to 10 points.

(* Success rate: How frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first downs, 70% on second and 100% on third and fourth.)

If there's a saving grace for Georgia, it's that Tennessee must score too. The Vols aren't amazing at that. They tore through three nonconference games averaging 64 points per game, but they've been well below average in SEC play, thanks primarily to a total lack of explosiveness.

In SEC play, Tennessee ranks 11th out of 16 teams in yards per play (5.3) and 12th in points per drive (1.8). They are slightly above average from an efficiency standpoint (seventh in success rate), but their successful plays average only 11.2 yards (13th). This is an all-nibbles offense at the moment, one with some quarterback uncertainty -- Nico Iamaleava left the Mississippi State game last week and is currently listed as questionable while trying to pass concussion protocol.

When you've got the best defense in the conference, nibbles can work. The next time someone scores even 20 points on the Vols will be the first, which is incredible considering that the offense's high tempo means the defense faces 13.0 drives per game (15th most in the country). But the offense managed only 14 points in the loss to Arkansas and faces the burden of proof in Athens.

At 12th in the CFP rankings, Georgia is treading dangerous ground. The Bulldogs have played the toughest schedule in the country -- Tennessee will be their fourth opponent currently ranked 11th or better -- but a third loss would likely dump them out of the top 12, and they would need some breaks to work back into the playoff mix. When healthy, their defensive front is capable of manhandling even Texas, and the overall talent levels are undeniable. But the Dawgs have only really looked like a playoff team about three times this year, and their offensive line got destroyed by Ole Miss last week. Either they start looking the part (like Alabama has since its second loss) or they lose CFP access.

Of course, with a win they're probably comfortably in the CFP field, and they haven't lost in Athens in five years. Maybe that's all that matters.

Current line: UGA -10 | SP+ projection: UGA by 4.4 | FPI projection: UGA by 4.3

Anytime I see a decent-sized cluster of top teams playing on the road, I get excited. They don't usually all escape without a scare. Naturally, then, the top four teams all playing away games is noteworthy, even if at least two of them don't appear to be in much danger.

 No. 1 Oregon at Wisconsin (7:30 p.m., NBC)

Wisconsin has played four teams in the SP+ Top 25 and has gone 0-4 with an average loss of 38-14. The Badgers are particularly good against bad teams but haven't offered nearly enough resistance against the elite. Oregon's elite. That seems bad.

The Badgers do tackle well, though, and they could contain Oregon's relentless short passing game, especially if Oregon RB Jordan James remains limited with injury. Forcing Dillon Gabriel out of his comfort zone and asking him to throw tougher passes downfield is only step one of many when it comes to taking down the Ducks, but if the Badgers can make a few early stops while establishing the run against a merely solid Oregon run defense, they could get Camp Randall involved in the game for a bit.

Current line: Ducks -14 | SP+ projection: Ducks by 19.0 | FPI projection: Ducks by 10.1

 No. 3 Texas at Arkansas (noon, ABC/ESPN+)

I'm really glad to have this game back on the schedule. Razorback Stadium is going to be bursting at the seams for this upset opportunity. Arkansas is a perfectly volatile underdog too. In their past four games alone, the Razorbacks have handed Tennessee its only loss and have lost to LSU and Ole Miss by a combined 58 points. They're explosive, and they make sure you are too.

Any hope for another upset will require improved defense from the Hogs. In their past three games, they have allowed a 74% completion rate at 14.9 yards per completion. Texas' Quinn Ewers can throw too many nibbling, short passes at times, but he'll have opportunities at some haymakers. Meanwhile, anything could happen when Arkansas has the ball: 9.4% of the Razorbacks' snaps have gained 20-plus yards (seventh most nationally), but Texas has allowed such gains just 2.6% of the time (fewest).

Current line: Texas -13.5 (down from -16.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Texas by 18.5 | FPI projection: Texas by 16.1

 No. 2 Ohio State at Northwestern (noon, BTN)

Ohio State is prepping for yet another noon kickoff -- this is the fifth of six straight for the Buckeyes -- but this one's at least in a unique locale: no, not Northwestern's glorious makeshift stadium by the lake, unfortunately, but Wrigley Field.

As with Wisconsin, Northwestern's success has been limited to bad teams: The Wildcats are 4-0 against opponents ranked 68th or worse in SP+ but are 0-5 against the top 50. The offense is just too dismal to damage good defenses (points per game against SP+ top-30 defense: 13.2), but it still does Northwestern-esque things well, limiting big plays, forcing field goals in the red zone, slowing the tempo to a crawl to keep the possession count down. That approach always has the potential to keep things close and weird, but the Wildcats haven't stayed within single digits of Ohio State at home (or home-ish) in 20 years.

Current line: Buckeyes -28.5 (down from -30) | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 31.2 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 26.7

 No. 4 Penn State at Purdue (3:30 p.m., CBS)

In three games against top-10 teams, Purdue has been outscored 146-7. I'm honestly surprised the line for this one is under 30 points. In a game like this, we're just looking for things that could test a potential playoff team. Purdue's run game is pretty solid; Devin Mockobee almost never loses ground and averages a strong 5.9 yards per carry (4.3 against those top-10 teams). We've been given little reason to doubt PSU's run defense, but if the Nittany Lions limit Mockobee, that's a good sign.

Current line: PSU -28.5 | SP+ projection: PSU by 34.1 | FPI projection: PSU by 30.8

BYU is still unbeaten but seems to enjoy playing with fire, Colorado is in the driver's seat for second place if it can avoid a stumble and Kansas State is desperately hoping for a break. Per SP+, there's an 87% chance that one of these three teams wins the conference, but all three have tricky hurdles to clear Saturday.

 Kansas at No. 6 BYU (10:15 p.m., ESPN)

Kansas is 3-6 and maybe the most dangerous team in the Big 12 right now, having produced a near-upset at Kansas State and a win over Iowa State in the past two games. To remain unbeaten, BYU will have to contain a dynamite backfield. Devin Neal rushed for 116 yards and two scores against a strong ISU defense last week, while Jalon Daniels threw for 295 yards and rushed for 68. BYU's pass defense is excellent, but the Cougars rank only 89th in yards allowed per carry (not including sacks).

Luckily, BYU gets to go against a Kansas defense that never forces three-and-outs and gives up too many big pass plays. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff and the Cougars passing game are increasingly explosive, and the run game has improved of late. That could be enough, but this might be a track meet.

Current line: BYU -2.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 7.9 | FPI projection: BYU by 4.0

 Utah at No. 17 Colorado (noon, Fox)

Colorado remains a fascinating, and developing, story. An 18-point loss to Nebraska in Week 2 brought confirmation for skeptics (like me), but the Buffaloes have steadily improved every week since. They've won six of seven, they've overachieved consistently against SP+ projections -- they've risen from 79th to 32nd -- and they've positioned themselves for a shot in the Big 12 championship game. It's incredible. The home stretch is tricky, though: Their next two games are against the team that nearly beat BYU last week (Utah) and the team that all but eliminated Iowa State from the race (Kansas).

Poor Utah. The Utes' defense remains excellent, but the offense just lost its third quarterback to injury -- and Brandon Rose looked good against BYU before going down. We'll see if they can muster enough points for a scare.

Current line: Colorado -11.5 (up from -10) | SP+ projection: Colorado by 3.4 | FPI projection: Colorado by 9.8

 Arizona State at No. 16 Kansas State (7 p.m., ESPN)

Arizona State's turnaround is both impressive and laced with what-ifs. After going 6-18 in 2022 and 2023, the Sun Devils are 7-2, with a 37% chance of finishing 9-3 or better, per SP+. They even survived a game against UCF without star running back Cam Skattebo last week. But quarterback Sam Leavitt missed a 24-14 loss to Cincinnati last month, and that's the only reason they're in also-ran status in the Big 12 race.

Kansas State still has a chance in the race if Colorado slips up -- and at 16th in the CFP rankings, it could still sneak into the playoff with enough chaos -- but offensive inconsistency has conspired against the Wildcats. Quarterback Avery Johnson has been tantalizing this year, but four of his seven interceptions came in losses to BYU and Houston, in which they scored just 28 total points.

Current line: K-State -8.5 | SP+ projection: K-State by 11.8 | FPI projection: K-State by 9.6

The ACC's title race is closer to the finish line than the Big 12's -- Miami (off this week) has to lose again, or SMU has to lose twice, for anyone else to have a shot. But the CFP committee has shown quite a bit of respect to the league, and three teams are ranked between 14th and 20th in the playoff rankings. They all still have an at-large bid to shoot for, even if they'll need a good amount of chaos to rise too much further.

 Boston College at No. 14 SMU (3:30 p.m., ESPN)

SMU got a week off following the blowout of Pitt that moved the 8-1 Mustangs into prime position in the ACC. SP+ gives them a 40% chance of winning the league, and if they win out they could very well be in the top 12 by the ACC championship game.

They face three straight tricky games, though: SP+ gives them only a 54% chance of beating BC, Virginia (in Charlottesville) and California. Boston College upset Syracuse last week thanks to 331 rushing yards from Kye Robichaux and Jordan McDonald, but Bill O'Brien elected to change QBs from the increasingly banged-up and ineffective Thomas Castellanos to Grayson James. Castellanos has left the team, so it's James' show now. SMU might have the best run defense in the ACC, but BC remains a unique test.

Current line: SMU -19.5 (up from -16.5) | SP+ projection: SMU by 19.3 | FPI projection: SMU by 17.0

 No. 20 Clemson at Pittsburgh (noon, ESPN/ESPN+)

Pitt is basically the ACC's Iowa State, using a couple of dramatic finishes to move into November unbeaten before dropping a couple of games in a row. Injuries and issues seem to be adding up for Eli Holstein, whose production has plummeted over the past four games.

Clemson's offense also has faded of late. The Tigers scored just 45 combined points and averaged 4.6 yards per play in a loss to Louisville and a tighter than expected game against injury-plagued Virginia Tech. Cade Klubnik completed just 54% of his passes at 9.0 yards per completion and was sacked six times in the two games. He must rebound by the South Carolina game in two weeks, but the Tigers might be able to get away with more mediocre production in this one.

Current line: Clemson -10 | SP+ projection: Clemson by 6.4 | FPI projection: Clemson by 7.2

 No. 19 Louisville at Stanford (3:30 p.m., ACCN)

Does Louisville really have a shot at the CFP? Probably not. But the Cardinals are very good, having lost only three one-score games to top-15 teams. They manhandled Clemson on the road two weeks ago, and they remain one of the most explosive teams in FBS. They've gained 20-plus yards on 9.9% of snaps (fourth highest in FBS), and both running back Isaac Brown and receiver Ja'Corey Brooks can put on a show. Their first-ever game against Stanford should be a happy one. The 2-7 Cardinal were spicy in September but have stayed within 24 points of just one of their past seven opponents.

Current line: Louisville -20.5 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 21.6 | FPI projection: Louisville by 20.7

Each week, I use SP+ win probabilities as an attempt to will chaos into existence -- I look at four carefully selected games with pretty big point spreads and mash them together into a much more upset-friendly number. And thanks to Georgia Tech's upset of Miami, we reeled in another one last week! We're now 7-for-11 on the season, and we're not stopping now!

This week's batch is a mixed bag -- two top-ranked teams and two relative mid-majors. But per SP+, there's only a 52% chance that Oregon (88% win probability against Wisconsin), Texas (88% against Arkansas), Washington State (85% against New Mexico) and Boise State (79% against San Jose State) all win in Week 12. Upsets in the former two games would be a lot more fun than the latter two.

Friday evening

UCLA at Washington (9 p.m., Fox). West Coast teams playing other West Coast teams! Amazing! Trends are difficult to suss out in this small sample sport, but UCLA has overachieved against SP+ projections by 14.4 points over its past five games. The Bruins are much tougher than they were in September, but for all of Washington's issues this year, the 5-5 Huskies have been strong at home in conference play.

Current line: UW -4 | SP+ projection: UW by 10.3 | FPI projection: UW by 5.5

Wyoming at Colorado State (8 p.m., CBSSN). With a conference schedule that doesn't feature either Boise State or UNLV, Colorado State is 4-0 in Mountain West play and three wins away from a spot in the conference title game. The Rams' defense has been increasingly stingy of late, and the offense is producing just enough big plays to counter decreasing efficiency. Could they really sneak ahead of UNLV in the MWC line?

Current line: CSU -11 | SP+ projection: CSU by 13.0 | FPI projection: CSU by 8.5

Early Saturday

No. 25 Tulane at Navy (noon, ESPN2). This one's nearly an elimination game -- Tulane is in the AAC championship game against Army with a win, while Navy is nearly there with an upset. Tulane has won seven games in a row; the Green Wave now rank in the top 20 in points scored and points allowed per drive. But after dire performances against Notre Dame and Rice, Navy responded well in last week's easy win over South Florida.

Current line: Tulane -7 | SP+ projection: Tulane by 4.1 | FPI projection: Tulane by 9.3

Louisiana-Monroe at Auburn (12:45 p.m., SECN). No one turns favorable statistics into losses better than Auburn; the Tigers' offense ranks 16th in yards per play but only 81st in points per drive because of constant red zone and turnover issues. ULM has trailed off, losing three in a row after a rousing 5-1 start; surely that means this one's an easy win for Auburn, right?

Right?

Current line: Auburn -24 | SP+ projection: Auburn by 27.0 | FPI projection: Auburn by 22.5

Saturday afternoon

No. 23 Missouri at No. 21 South Carolina (4:15 p.m., SECN). Missouri keeps wriggling out of jams -- the Tigers have won eight one-score games in a row going back to 2023. South Carolina has lost both of its close SEC games this year, so if things stay tight, maybe Mizzou has the edge. But the Gamecocks might be the hottest team in the country right now. With quarterback Brady Cook likely out for one more week and center Connor Tollison out for the season, it feels like Mizzou is at quite a disadvantage against the Gamecocks' incredible pass rush.

Current line: Gamecocks -13.5 | SP+ projection: Gamecocks by 2.6 | FPI projection: Gamecocks by 7.4

No. 22 LSU at Florida (3:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN+). It's unlikely, but if LSU wins out and chaos reigns elsewhere, the Tigers could still benefit from the ridiculous logjam of two-loss SEC teams and sneak into the conference title game. We'll see if Florida, with its incredible injuries list -- QB DJ Lagway will return and start and RB Montrell Johnson Jr. has been upgraded to questionable -- can manage some resistance. I thought the Gators would be capable of an upset down the stretch, but that was about 26 injuries ago.

Current line: LSU -4 | SP+ projection: LSU by 6.1 | FPI projection: LSU by 2.7

Baylor at West Virginia (4 p.m., ESPN2). These two 5-4 teams were left for dead -- BU was 2-4, WVU was 3-4 and both Dave Aranda and Neal Brown seemed all but fired. But both teams rallied, and with three relative toss-ups remaining each, both have legitimate shots at 5-7 or 8-4. West Virginia quarterback Garrett Greene should return this week, and the projected win probability for WVU's last three games is 53%, 53% and 50%. Embrace the anxiety, Mountaineer fans.

Current line: Baylor -2.5 (up from -1.5) | SP+ projection: WVU by 1.2 | FPI projection: WVU by 1.1

Syracuse at California (3 p.m., The CW). In the past two games, Cal's Fernando Mendoza has thrown for 749 yards, and the Golden Bears have scored 90 points. Somehow, despite at one point losing four straight games by a total of 9 points, there's still a solid potential win total on the table for the 5-4 Bears. But first they must get past a Syracuse team that has topped 30 points six times and allowed 30 points four times. Major track meet potential.

Current line: Cal -9 (up from -7) | SP+ projection: Cal by 8.7 | FPI projection: Cal by 11.4

Nebraska at USC (4 p.m., Fox). Is it a helmet game if the teams are a combined 9-9? Both fallen powers are just trying to scrape out bowl eligibility -- per SP+, Nebraska has a 78% chance, USC 63% -- but some replacements have made this one intriguing. NU's Matt Rhule just handed the offensive playcalling to Dana Holgorsen, while USC's Lincoln Riley is apparently going to start Jayden Maiava over Miller Moss at QB.

Current line: USC -9.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 8.1 | FPI projection: USC by 13.6

Virginia at No. 8 Notre Dame (3:30 p.m., NBC). After winning six games in Tony Elliott's first two seasons in charge, Virginia is just one win away from matching that total in 2024. But the Cavaliers are 0-3 against SP+ top-30 teams, and each of their three remaining opponents is in the top 30. Plus, Notre Dame has overachieved against SP+ projections by an average of 15.6 points over the past four games.

Current line: Irish -23 | SP+ projection: Irish by 27.0 | FPI projection: Irish by 27.8

James Madison at Old Dominion (4 p.m., ESPNU). It will take an upset to prevent JMU from finishing 10-2 in Bob Chesney's first season in charge, but two upsets have already rendered the Dukes' Sun Belt title hopes wobbly at best. If this one remains close for a while, Ricky Rahne's battle-tested ODU -- seven of nine games have been decided by 10 or fewer points -- could make things uncomfortable.

Current line: JMU -3 | SP+ projection: JMU by 14.0 | FPI projection: JMU by 5.5

Saturday evening

No. 13 Boise State at San Jose State (7 p.m., CBSSN). I have already jinxed Boise State in this one, and I feel bad about it. SJSU has one of the most all-or-nothing offenses in the country with big-play receiving threats Nick Nash and Justin Lockhart, but the "nothings" are adding up, and the Spartans haven't topped 24 points for four games. They'll probably need more than that to keep up with Ashton Jeanty and a BSU offense that hasn't scored fewer than 28 all year.

Current line: BSU -13.5 | SP+ projection: BSU by 12.8 | FPI projection: BSU by 14.4

Cincinnati at Iowa State (8 p.m., Fox). Things have gone south for Iowa State thanks, surprisingly enough, to the defense. After allowing 11 points per game during a 6-0 start, the Cyclones have allowed 34.3 in their past three games, a near-defeat against UCF and losses to Texas Tech and Kansas. We'll see if that matters against a Cincinnati offense that has gone in the other direction: 33.4 PPG in the first five games, then 22.5 in the past four.

Current line: ISU -9.5 (up from -8) | SP+ projection: ISU by 10.0 | FPI projection: ISU by 7.6

South Alabama at Louisiana (7 p.m., ESPN+). I don't post best bets, but if I did, I would point out that (a) South Alabama ranks third nationally in rushing success rate thanks to the dynamite combination of RBs Kentrel Bullock and Fluff Bothwell and quarterback Gio Lopez, and (b) Louisiana's extreme bend-don't-break defense ranks 134th, dead last, in rushing success rate allowed. UL is 8-1 but has only actually dominated one conference opponent, and USA's upside (and inconsistency) is clear.

Current line: Cajuns -7 (down from -9) | SP+ projection: Cajuns by 10.1 | FPI projection: Cajuns by 2.4

Late Saturday

No. 18 Washington State at New Mexico (9:30 p.m., FS1). Washington State's offense is eighth in points per drive and New Mexico's is 32nd. New Mexico's defense is 131st in points allowed per drive and Wazzu's is 94th. The over/under for this one is a whopping 72.5 points, and picking the under feels like a massive risk, doesn't it? Wazzu's John Mateer and UNM's Devon Dampier are among the most watchable QBs in the country. This is perfect late-night content.

Current line: Wazzu -10.5 (down from -13.5) | SP+ projection: Wazzu by 16.4 | FPI projection: Wazzu by 13.7

San Diego State at UNLV (10:30 p.m., CBSSN). SDSU looked like it was turning a corner until a late 12-point lead over Washington State turned into a 3-point loss. The Aztecs have lost two more since then to fall to 3-6. They prevent big plays well and could frustrate UNLV's ultra-explosive offense, but can they score enough to keep up? Probably not. UNLV's MWC title hopes should remain intact here.

Current line: UNLV -20.5 | SP+ projection: UNLV by 19.0 | FPI projection: UNLV by 20.2

Let's once again save a shoutout for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.

FCS: No. 6 Incarnate Word at Stephen F. Austin (3 p.m., ESPN+). Consider this a test of UIW's playoff readiness. The Cardinals, FCS semifinalists in 2022, have won seven in a row, averaging 43 points in the process -- quarterback Zach Calzada (yes, that Zach Calzada) threw for 402 yards and five scores last week -- and they're close to clinching the Southland title. But SFA is better than its 6-4 record: Against FCS opponents, the Lumberjacks have won five games by an average of 31 points and lost three by an average of only 3.7; they're 4-0 at home and a healthy 16th overall in FCS SP+.

SP+ projection: UIW by 2.4.

Division II: No. 16 West Florida at No. 1 Valdosta State (7 p.m., FloFootball). The Division II, Division III and NAIA ranks don't feature many projected thrillers this week -- not with the playoffs starting next week -- but this one, between the 2018 and 2019 national champions, is an exception. VSU is first in the Division II polls and second in SP+; UWF, meanwhile, has surged after a slow start, winning five in a row by an average score of 41-11. Traevon Mitchell and Collin Shaw trigger a dynamite pass rush for the Argonauts, but VSU might not have to pass: Backs Blake Hester and Alfonso Franklin average 7.9 yards per carry.

SP+ projection: VSU by 10.0.

FCS: No. 2 Montana State at No. 4 UC Davis (8 p.m., ESPN+). Once again, our smaller-school headliner comes from Big Sky country. UC Davis scored a 30-14 statement win at Montana last week; the Aggies allowed 72 yards on the Grizzlies' opening drive and just 214 thereafter and scored their ninth straight win since a competitive loss to Cal. Montana State beat New Mexico to start the season and has won four of its past five Big Sky games by at least 30 points. The Bobcats are comfortably No. 1 in FCS SP+ now. Can a balanced squad and home-field advantage score UCD another upset?

SP+ projection: MSU by 10.3.