Bill Barnwell predicts the NFL playoffs: [608x342]
Bill Barnwell predicts the NFL playoffs: [608x342] (Credit: Illustration by ESPN)

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We're through Week 1 of the 2024 NFL regular season, and while the postseason is still months away, we're taking an early look at the current playoff picture and the road to Super Bowl LIX.

Which teams are already in good shape at this point? Which ones still have a lot of work to do to ultimately get into the 14-team field? We used ESPN's Football Power Index to project the rest of the season, looking at the playoff picture for both conferences. We included updated odds for every team to make the postseason, clinch the division and even make the Super Bowl. Here's everything you need right now.

Last update: Sept. 13 at 8:25 a.m. ET

Jump to a conference: AFC | NFC

Projecting the AFC playoff field

After a close win over the Ravens on the opening night of the NFL season, the Chiefs currently have the league's highest percentage chance to make the playoffs at 91%. Baltimore, despite the win, has the best chance to make the playoffs among 0-1 teams at 60% (eighth-highest overall and fourth-highest in the conference).

But what happened to the Bengals? They entered the season with the fifth-best chance to make the postseason at 66%. After their Week 1 loss to the Patriots, they now rank 10th (and sixth in the AFC) at 45%. Joe Burrow and his Cincinnati team have some work to do.

On Thursday night, the Bills helped their cause by beating the Dolphins on the road. They are now at 78% to make the playoffs (fifth-highest overall and second-best in the AFC), while Miami fell to 54% (ninth overall and fifth in the conference).

New England entered the season with the NFL's lowest odds to make the playoffs, per ESPN's FPI (6%). Now? The Pats are up to 16% -- 28th overall and 14th in the AFC.

Projecting the NFC playoff field

After their win against the Jets on Monday night, the 49ers now have a 84% chance to make the playoffs -- which is tops in the NFC. Detroit rose from 70% to 79% with a Sunday night win over the Rams, and the Eagles sit at 83% after beating the Packers.

The NFC South could be a division to watch. The Falcons came into Week 1 with a 60% chance to make the playoffs and a 34% chance to win the division. Those numbers are now 39% and 24%, respectively, after Pittsburgh stymied the Kirk Cousins-led offense. Meanwhile, the Saints and Buccaneers are both over 50% to make the playoffs after big Week 1 wins.

Things don't look great for the Panthers and Giants. Both teams are below 6% to make the playoffs after just one game. Bryce Young and Daniel Jones combined for zero touchdown throws, four interceptions and nine sacks in their Week 1 outings.

NFL playoff schedule

Jan. 11-13: Wild-card round Jan. 18-19: Divisional round Jan. 26: AFC and NFC championship games Feb. 9: Super Bowl LIX (in New Orleans)