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Welcome to a loaded Week 11 slate. Kansas City Chiefs-Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens-Pittsburgh Steelers, Seattle Seahawks-San Francisco 49ers, Cincinnati Bengals-Los Angeles Chargers, Cleveland Browns-New Orleans Saints -- what a treat! (Just making sure you're paying attention with that last one.)
We're making a coaching change this week, as back-to-back terrible weeks in this space has necessitated a format change. Instead of focusing on a few big games, I'm casting a wide net, and selecting props or lines for nearly every game on Sunday's NFL slate.
I'm leaning heavily on props, as they've been outperforming our sides and totals all season. It's also a tough week for sides, as we're getting to the part of the season where everyone's a little banged up, and games can take huge left turns accordingly.
Hopefully the new system creates some more scoring opportunities for our offense.
All odds current as of publication time and courtesy of ESPN BET.
Jump to: Player props | Game picks, teaser and SGP
Player propsRavens WR Zay Flowers OVER 59.5 receiving yards (-115)
Flowers either goes for 20 yards or 120 yards in games this season, but this reads like a 120 game. Flowers averages 3.15 yards per route run against single-high coverages, which the Steelers run on over 70% of opposing dropbacks, the highest rate in football this season. Cornerback Joey Porter Jr. is a solid player, but he's a longer and more physical corner who will struggle with Flowers' quickness in space, especially as the Ravens manufacture free releases for Flowers off the line of scrimmage.
We should expect a competitive game that never becomes a run-heavy script for Baltimore, as the line is only 3 points and the Steelers and Ravens seemingly always play close games. I also imagine Baltimore will skew a bit more pass-heavy in general, as the Steelers' run defense should put the Ravens in more third-and-pass situations than they're accustomed to seeing.
Because of Flowers' boom-or-bust potential, I do think it's prudent to take alternate lines here. I'll be watching early in this game to see if the Steelers are pressing Zay as expected. If they're playing off of him, expect the Ravens to start throwing screens his way, and I'll consider taking a receptions prop as well.
Ravens QB Lamar Jackson UNDER 44.5 rushing yards (-120)
The Steelers have been excellent against rushing quarterbacks, allowing only 3.4 yards per carry (sixth-best in football). Lamar kills you on the ground with miracle runs, but the Steelers are allowing only 20% of quarterback runs to produce more rush yards than expected this season. They're a fundamentally good team and tackle well.
The sample size is small on the Steelers against QB runs (only 18 carries faced this season), but I'd argue that's a good thing. They've faced Daniel Jones, Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix -- three of the better running quarterbacks in football -- and structurally discouraged them from keeping the ball on option plays or scrambling when they drop back. Indeed, this season, quarterbacks are scrambling on 1.5% of dropbacks against the Steelers, the lowest number in football. Nobody discourages the QB run like the Steelers do.
It's also worth noting that Jackson has been running infrequently since he started popping on the injury report with back and knee issues, tallying only three carries against the Denver Broncos and seven against the Bengals for only 1.3 and 4.7 yards a pop, respectively. I like him to stay under once again.
Detroit Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown UNDER 79.5 receiving yards (-135)
The Lions are two-touchdown favorites at home against Mac Jones and the cellar-dwelling Jacksonville Jaguars, so we should expect passing volume to be way down from Detroit in this game. Brown has been over this number only twice this season: against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Lions' lone loss and against the Minnesota Vikings in a game that was competitive for four quarters. We shouldn't expect St. Brown to be utilized nearly as heavily in this game as he was in those.
This is also a bad defensive matchup for St. Brown, who has been targeted twice as frequently on routes against zone coverage (34% of the time) as those against man coverage (16% of the time). By yards per route run, St. Brown is three times as productive against zone coverage (2.79 yards per route run) than he is against man coverage (0.89).
The Jaguars are one of the league's heaviest man-coverage teams. On the season, they've run it on 38.6% of opposing dropbacks; with cornerback Tyson Campbell on the field, they're at 40% overall. Neither game script nor defensive scheme serves St. Brown in this matchup, and I expect a quieter day for him accordingly.
Atlanta Falcons RB Bijan Robinson OVER 24.5 receiving yards (-130)
The Broncos' defense is one of the most polarizing in all of football. They run man coverage at the third-highest rate, single-high defenses at the seventh-highest rate and they blitz at a league-leading rate. This is a physical and aggressive unit that dictates the terms of engagement to opposing offense, which is great for prop betting, as it makes opposing offenses predictable.
When blitzed this season, Kirk Cousins targets three players heavily: Darnell Mooney (31.4% of routes run), Drake London (30.6% of routes run) and Robinson (24% of routes run). Backs are generally productive in the passing game against the Broncos, averaging a target on 24% of their routes and 1.45 yards per route run. Both are top-five numbers for a defense leaguewide.
Backs have been particularly productive through the air against the Broncos. Justice Hill had 43 receiving yards and Kareem Hunt had 65. Robinson is a more dangerous threat in space than either of those players. The Falcons prioritize getting Robinson touches, and if they have a tough day getting Robinson going on the ground against a staunch Denver front, I'd imagine they script up a few looks for him in the passing game.
Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor OVER 89.5 rushing yards (+105)
Unsurprisingly, Taylor has been a more dangerous runner with dual-threat quarterback Anthony Richardson on the field than he has been with Joe Flacco under center (5.1 yards per rush compared to 4.5 yards per rush and a 17% explosive run rate, up from 12%). The increased efficiency doesn't suffer from a decreased volume, either. Taylor has a carry on 76 of 177 snaps with Richardson (42%) and 50 of 122 snaps with Flacco (41%).
Now Taylor gets a Jets defense that has been absolutely gashed on the ground since Robert Saleh was fired. In the past five weeks, the Jets are fourth-worst in EPA per carry surrendered and sixth-worst by success rate. They have allowed 20 runs to gain at least five more yards than expected, which comfortably leads the league, and is a testament to the bad tackling that Jeff Ulbrich is trying to address this week.
In Richardson's first start since his benching, I'd imagine the Colts want to be run-heavy, especially given the weakness therein for the Jets' defense.
49ers RB Christian McCaffrey OVER 79.5 rushing yards (-105)
McCaffrey's 2024 debut wasn't exactly outrageous, as he posted 13 carries for 39 yards, six catches for 68 yards and no scores. But the 49ers ran into a pass-funnel Buccaneers' defense -- so good against the run, so bad through the air -- that the game naturally gravitated to Brock Purdy dropbacks. McCaffrey still got 13 of the 18 handoffs in the game, and 12 of his 13 carries came on outside zone, the 49ers' favored rushing approach.
Seattle has the worst defense in all of football defending outside zone runs, allowing a whopping 5.6 yards per carry to the concept this season. Against the 49ers in Week 6, Seattle surrendered 9.8 yards per carry on 17 outside zone runs to the combination of Jordan Mason and Isaac Guerendo (thanks in large part to a game-sealing 76 yard run to end the contest).
The Seahawks' run defense might be improved from that game, as they've totally overhauled their linebacker room from Tyrel Dodson and Jerome Baker to Ernest Jones IV and Tyrice Knight, but I don't think the improvement will be enough.
New England Patriots TE Hunter Henry OVER 39.5 receiving yards (+100)
Henry had a quieter game last week against a great Chicago Bears defense, and his overall receiving production wasn't helped by the fact that the Patriots were actually leading in the second half. But the tight end is averaging 49.6 receiving yards per game in five Drake Maye starts this season and is leading the team in target share over those starts.
Now Henry draws a Los Angeles Rams team that is surrendering 1.77 yards per route run to tight ends this season, second only to the Chiefs. Starting linebacker Troy Reeder (hamstring) is still on injured reserve, so Christian Rozeboom, who, admittedly, played the game of his life Monday night against the Miami Dolphins, and Omar Speights, will take the majority of linebacker snaps.
If the Rams build a lead on the Patriots, something we should expect as they are 5-point favorites and bouncing back after an embarrassing loss to the Dolphins, then we will get Maye in a pass script and can expect him to pepper Henry accordingly.
Chargers RB J.K. Dobbins UNDER 59.5 rushing yards (+100)
Gus Edwards is back in the lineup, and he took 10 carries to Dobbins' 15 in their Week 10 win over the Titans. Fifteen carries feels like a lot, but Dobbins got seven carries in the fourth quarter while the Chargers were salting away a multiscore lead over the Tennessee Titans.
When both players were healthy in September, Edwards outcarried Dobbins two of the three games they played before his ankle injury. Dobbins was more explosive then and lost some of his big-play potential when Edwards was absent. The return of Edwards to a strong 1B role last week leads me to believe we see a near 50-50 split in carries for the next few weeks, especially considering that Edwards looked more efficient than Dobbins last week.
The Bengals' run defense was a laughingstock to start the season, but recent history shines far more favorably. Since Week 6, when starting defensive tackles Sheldon Rankins and B.J. Hill returned to the starting lineup, the Bengals are allowing only 3.4 yards per carry to opposing backs, with the sixth-best success rate in football. They've faced a couple of bad rushing attacks in that stretch, but they've also faced Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry.
I think the run defense is far improved in Cincinnati, and I think Dobbins is likely to see his total rush volume diminish now that Edwards is back and with the Chargers facing a neutral game script in this one. Remember, since their Week 5 bye, the Chargers are seventh in pass rate over expectation. They run this offense through the air now.
Other looks and a same-game parlay (SGP)Browns ML (-110) at Saints
The Saints got a nice interim bump (and an unreal amount of luck) to beat the Falcons last week, and now they welcome the Browns as small favorites. But I simply cannot make the Saints as the better team in this game.
The starting receivers for New Orleans once again project to be Mason Tipton, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Kevin Austin Jr., which puts them at an enormous disadvantage against Denzel Ward, Greg Newsome II and Martin Emerson Jr. The Saints will need to run the ball well against the Browns to stay out of disadvantageous downs and distances, but the Browns create more tackles at or behind the line of scrimmage than all but three run defenses. Whenever the Saints are forced to pass, they'll be at a big disadvantage.
So long as the Browns can get a lead in this game, they should be able to sustain it without trouble. I expect to see a springier Nick Chubb this week, as the bye week gave the recently returned veteran another week of rest and recovery, and the Saints' 31st-ranked run defense awaits. That, plus it being a Jameis Winston revenge game, has me leaning towards the Browns on the road.
6-point teaser (-105): Vikings ML at Titans, Seahawks +12.5 at 49ers
I understand why the Vikings are only 6-point favorites in Tennessee. The Titans' defense has been a stingy unit, and some shine has come off of the Vikings after consecutive losses to the Lions and Rams (as well as less-than-emphatic victories over the Flacco-led Colts and Mac Jones-led Jaguars). But injuries are accruing in the Titans' defensive backfield, with the long absences of L'Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie and now starting free safety Quandre Diggs joining injured reserve and starting cornerback Roger McCreary hit with a questionable designation for Sunday. Edge rusher Arden Key is also questionable for Sunday, and star center Lloyd Cushenberry III is out for the season.
There are enough injuries on the Titans' side for me to discount them in my power rankings, especially against a largely healthy Vikings unit (save for a Sam Darnold throwing hand injury that seems minor). Given the Vikings' urgency to stay in the NFC North race and the Titans' largely meaningless season the rest of the way, I expect the necessary urgency from Minnesota to secure the win.
As for the Seahawks, every metric we've got says they're a much closer team to the 49ers than a 6.5-point spread would imply, even on the road. Seattle has been abysmal at finishing drives in the red zone but is still moving the ball effectively and is likely getting right tackle Abraham Lucas back in the starting lineup, a huge boon to a team that has been suffering from quick quarterback pressures. Against a divisional opponent, off of a bye, with playoff hopes on the line, Seattle should come out fast and keep this game close.
SGP: Bears-Packers UNDER 44.5 points, Caleb Williams 20+ rushing yards, Jayden Reed 60+ receiving yards, Cole Kmet 2+ receptions (+800)
The Bears fired their offensive coordinator after three terrible showings post-bye. What can we expect from this offense? Points won't suddenly come flowing behind this shaky offensive line, but two things stand out as immediate reliefs as the offensive coaching staff undergoes a big self reflection.
The first: tight end Cole Kmet, who has vanished from recent game plans. He has three total receptions over the past three weeks, which simply does not make sense, given how poor the wide receivers are playing on this team. I expect intentional Kmet involvement from new offensive coordinator Thomas Brown.
I also expect him to encourage Williams to use his legs a little more. The No. 1 overall pick was a successful scrambler for much of the season, with at least five carries in five of his first seven games. In the past two weeks, Williams has tried to hang in the pocket to find throws, which to me feels like a coaching insistence, and accordingly has taken far more sacks. With the coaching change, that could change, and Williams would then turn those pressures into scramble opportunities.
On the other side of the ball, Reed is Jordan Love's go-to target against zone coverage and single-high defenses. The Bears are top-10 in usage in both measures. Reed will be the primary target in the passing game this week for Green Bay.
