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It was for the better How Ja Morant and the Grizzlies turned last season s woes into success
Welcome to the Fantasy Football Playbook for Week 11, which kicked off Thursday with the Commanders at the Eagles.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
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Green Bay Packers @ Chicago BearsProjected Score: Packers 22, Bears 17
Lineup locks: Josh Jacobs, D'Andre Swift
Jayden Reed has produced five top-25 fantasy outings this season, but he hasn't been as good as of late -- finishing below WR55 in two of his past three games. He also has a tough matchup against a Chicago defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to the slot, which is where he aligns 71% of the time. Reed's underwhelming target share (17%) is offset a bit by a role in the run game (11 attempts), but he's also limited by a minimal role near the goal line (only one end zone target). The explosive slot man is just good enough to warrant WR3 consideration this week.
Over/Under: 39.2 (12th highest) Win Probability: Packers 67% (6th highest)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit LionsProjected Score: Lions 29, Jaguars 15
Lineup locks: Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Evan Engram
Travis Etienne Jr. has struggled, but his Week 10 usage suggests that he remains Jacksonville's clear lead back. Tank Bigsby (ankle) was shaken up on his first carry, but Etienne had already played on the first four snaps of the game and held a 20-10-3 edge over Bigsby and D'Ernest Johnson, respectively, prior to Bigsby's final snap of the day. Etienne then went on to play the final nine snaps of the game. However, the results for Etienne weren't great (43 yards on 12 touches) and he's now failed to reach 15 fantasy points in any game this season. Etienne, whose last game with more than 12 touches was Week 3, should be viewed as a flex option against a Detroit defense that has allowed the sixth-fewest RB fantasy points.
Over/Under: 43.7 (6th highest) Win Probability: Lions 91% (Highest)
Minnesota Vikings @ Tennessee TitansProjected Score: Vikings 21, Titans 18
Lineup locks: Aaron Jones, Tony Pollard, Justin Jefferson, Calvin Ridley, T.J. Hockenson
Ridley is back to "lineup lock" status after producing a season-high 25.4 fantasy points on Sunday. Ridley has had his downs this season (under 8.0 fantasy points in five out of six games to open 2024), but he's also produced 22-plus fantasy points three times, including in two of his last three. Ridley has seen eight-plus targets in five straight games and has 73-plus yards in three straight games. Tennessee's QB struggles add risk, but Ridley's massive usage (a 32% target share since Week 6) plus a good matchup (Minnesota has allowed the third-most WR yards and fantasy points) puts him in the WR2/3 mix for Week 11.
Over/Under: 38.9 (13th highest) Win Probability: Vikings 60% (8th highest)
Las Vegas Raiders @ Miami DolphinsProjected Score: Dolphins 24, Raiders 15
Lineup locks: De'Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, Jakobi Meyers, Brock Bowers
Meyers as a "lineup lock" may seem surprising, but don't overlook the underrated receiver's output since returning from injury in Week 8. In those two games, Meyers posted receiving lines of 6-52-1 on seven targets and 8-105-0 on 11 targets. He produced 17-plus fantasy points in both outings and has now seen seven-plus targets in five straight games (9.2 per game). Meyers' 13.8 fantasy PPG might not seem like much, but it's higher than the likes of DeVonta Smith, Mike Evans, Brian Thomas Jr. and ex-teammate Davante Adams. At worst, Meyers is a viable WR3.
Over/Under: 39.3 (11th highest) Win Probability: Dolphins 80% (2nd highest)
Los Angeles Rams @ New England PatriotsProjected Score: Rams 20, Patriots 20
Lineup locks: Kyren Williams, Rhamondre Stevenson, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp
In a pinch and need a QB streamer for Week 11? Consider Drake Maye. The rookie was limited to 11.8 fantasy points last week, but that was expected against a tough Bears defense. In fact, his point total was actually fourth best against Chicago this season. Prior to Week 10, Maye had thrown for 200-plus yards in his three full games, totaling six TDs in those outings. Despite missing most of Week 8 due to injury, Maye paces all quarterbacks with 221 rushing yards since taking over as New England's starter, averaging a ridiculous 9.3 yards per carry. Maye is in a better spot this week against a Rams defense that has allowed 16 passing scores (sixth most) and 8.4 YPA (second highest).
Over/Under: 40.6 (9th highest) Win Probability: Rams 51% (13th highest)
Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans SaintsProjected Score: Saints 20, Browns 19
Lineup locks: Alvin Kamara, Cedric Tillman, David Njoku
Since Amari Cooper was shipped to Buffalo, Tillman has posted receiving lines of 8-81-0, 7-99-2 and 6-75-1. He had 31 total targets during the three games (with nine-plus in all three) and no wide receiver has scored more fantasy points during the span. Tillman got a nice boost from garbage time when we last saw him (Week 9), but his heavy usage, which includes 95-plus air yards in all three games, is enough to lock him into the WR3 mix. Tillman should be in lineups against a Saints defense that has allowed the fourth-most WR yards and ninth-most WR fantasy points. Teammates Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore have both been heavily targeted, as well, and can be considered flex options.
Over/Under: 39.6 (10th highest) Win Probability: Saints 54% (10th highest)
Indianapolis Colts @ New York JetsProjected Score: Jets 21, Colts 20
Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Breece Hall, Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson
With Michael Pittman Jr. sidelined last week, the Colts' WR usage was as follows: Adonai Mitchell (58 snaps, 6 targets), Alec Pierce (52, 7), Josh Downs (41, 10) and Ashton Dulin (11, 0). Downs has been much better with Joe Flacco under center (17.7 PPG), but did put up 109 yards on nine targets when Anthony Richardson last played and is the strongest start from this group. Mitchell (6-71-0 last week) and Pierce (4-81-1) will remain flex "dart throws" only if Pittman remains sidelined. Of course, the matchup is tough this week (Pittman, Mitchell and Pierce will see a ton of Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed), so proceed with caution.
Over/Under: 41 (8th highest) Win Probability: Jets 51% (12th highest)
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh SteelersProjected Score: Ravens 30, Steelers 25
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, George Pickens, Zay Flowers
With Isaiah Likely sidelined last week, Mark Andrews was back to his pre-2024 self. The 29-year-old played on 88% of snaps (his highest share since Week 5 of last season). He also handled a season-high seven targets (his first 2024 game over five) and put up a season-best 68 yards. Andrews has now delivered 14-plus fantasy points in four of his last five games, although an unsustainable 41% of his points have come from five touchdowns during the span. By comparison, only 20% of his points from 2022-23 came from TDs. Perhaps Andrews is now fully back to his old self, but we'll need to see it with Likely in the fold before he can be trusted as a safe fantasy start. Consider him a fringe TE1 this week against a good Steelers defense.
Over/Under: 55.1 (Highest) Win Probability: Ravens 70% (5th highest)
Atlanta Falcons @ Denver BroncosProjected Score: Falcons 22, Broncos 21
Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Courtland Sutton
It appears as though the Broncos may have a new lead back. Rookie Audric Estime carried the ball on 14 of his 25 snaps on Sunday, both of which paced the Denver RB room and were career-high marks. Estime has run well this season (5.1 YPC), but has yet to find the end zone or see a single target on his 47 snaps. Javonte Williams (one carry and two targets on 16 snaps) and Jaleel McLaughlin (two carries on six targets) also saw the field last week and, while it appears that Williams will sustain a major role in passing situations (his 15 routes were more than the 12 combined from the other two backs), neither should be near lineups. Estime should also be on benches, as he will need some work in the passing game before we can consider him to be a safe flex.
Over/Under: 43.4 (7th highest) Win Probability: Falcons 52% (11th highest)
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ersProjected Score: 49ers 26, Seahawks 20
Lineup locks: Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Kenneth Walker III, DK Metcalf, Deebo Samuel Sr., Jaxon Smith-Njigba, George Kittle
The new-look 49ers' WR unit made its debut last week, as it was the first game back for Jauan Jennings (55 snaps, 11 targets) since Brandon Aiyuk's torn ACL, as well as his first game with rookie Ricky Pearsall (38, 6). Jennings and Pearsall joined Samuel (three carries and six targets on 48 snaps) as the clear one-two-three punch at the position, as expected, with no other WR reaching 10 snaps or seeing a target. All three receivers reached 60 yards in the game and Pearsall found the end zone. This group is in a terrific spot this week against a Seattle defense that has allowed the seventh-most WR fantasy points (plus 10 scores). Samuel is a solid WR2, whereas Jennings and Pearsall are flex options.
Over/Under: 45.1 (5th highest) Win Probability: 49ers 71% (4th highest)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo BillsProjected Score: Bills 26, Chiefs 24
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Kareem Hunt, James Cook, DeAndre Hopkins, Khalil Shakir, Travis Kelce, Dalton Kincaid
After maxing out at 16.4 fantasy points during his first six games of the season, Patrick Mahomes has now produced at least 16.5 points in three straight games (19.8 average). Mahomes threw for 260-plus yards in all three games after doing so just twice over the first six outings. Mahomes has been in a fantasy slump since midway through last season, so he's certainly not back in the "lineup lock" discussion, but the recent boost in play is enough to position him as a streaming option. Buffalo has been solid against the pass, but the Chiefs' game script might be a bit more pass-friendly this week against a good Bills squad.
Over/Under: 50.5 (2nd highest) Win Probability: Bills 58% (9th highest)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Los Angeles ChargersProjected Score: Chargers 26, Bengals 22
Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, J.K. Dobbins, Chase Brown, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Ladd McConkey
After failing to clear 14.8 fantasy points in any of his first six games of the season, Justin Herbert has since posted 19-plus points in three straight. Herbert's resurgence has stemmed from production both through the air (two games of 270-plus yards and two TDs) and on the ground (4-49-0 and 9-32-1 rushing lines during the span). The Chargers have run a balanced offense this season, but they've also led on a league-high 54% of their offensive snaps, which has limited Herbert to 26.8 passing attempts per game. Herbert's strong recent play and a good matchup -- the Bengals have allowed the fifth-most QB fantasy points, including four 28-plus point games -- positions him as a Week 11 streaming option.
Over/Under: 48.5 (3rd highest) Win Probability: Chargers 62% (7th highest)
Houston Texans @ Dallas CowboysProjected Score: Texans 22, Cowboys 15
Lineup locks: Joe Mixon, Nico Collins, CeeDee Lamb, Tank Dell
Granted it was against a red-hot Eagles defense, but the Dallas offense was a disaster in its first game without Dak Prescott. QBs Cooper Rush and Trey Lance combined for a sad 66 passing yards and no Dallas player cleared 8.6 fantasy points. Needless to say, this is an offense that is going to be hard to trust moving forward, although the silver lining for Lamb is that he remained heavily targeted (21 yards on nine targets). Lamb has had a lot of success with Rush in the past and will now face a Houston defense that has allowed a league-high 21 passing scores. He remains a "lineup lock," whereas Rico Dowdle (Houston has allowed the fifth-fewest RB fantasy points) and Jake Ferguson (Houston has allowed the fewest TE catches, yards and fantasy points) are very risky starts.
Over/Under: 36.9 (14th highest) Win Probability: Texans 75% (3rd highest)
