MLB free agents Why to avoid Alonso invest in Goldschmidt

Ranieri Fate said I would finish career at Roma

Now that we've projected contracts for the top 50 free agents in this winter's class, let's take a look at which players could provide the most -- and least -- bang for their expected buck.

Last year's version yielded some immediate hits -- jumping on the bandwagons for Shota Imanaga and Sonny Gray while steering clear of the projected megadeals for Blake Snell and Cody Bellinger -- so I'm back again to try to hit the bull's-eye a few more times.

The projected contracts in my rankings provide important context for this exercise as my choices are based on return on investment -- how I expect the players to perform over the length of their deals and their projected prices.

The rules for this edition are the same ones I set out for myself last winter: Each group of three players must have one player projected to land more than $50 million, one projected for a one-year deal and at least one pitcher and one position player. This year, I'll add another stipulation: no Roki Sasaki, as his value for the salary he can receive would be the ultimate cop-out.

Here are my three free agents to invest in and three to avoid for the 2024-25 MLB offseason.

Shane Bieber, RHP

Projected contract: 3 years, $54 million

In recent offseasons, we've seen teams pay $15 million-plus per year on multiyear deals for innings-eater starting pitchers to slot in the back of their rotations, while nine figures has become the entry price for any free agent starter who even sniffs frontline quality. Teams jump at the chance to get someone better than that generic back-end type when the price drops to less than $20 million per year, but that usually means betting on someone in their late 30s, coming off an outlier season or recovering from an injury.

Bieber's free agency provides teams with one of the best versions of this bet. He seemed destined for a nine-figure free agency payday as recently as 2022, when he posted 4.8 WAR in his age-27 season: 200 innings, 2.88 ERA with FIP/xFIP also under 3.00. That year was actually the nadir of a downward trend in velocity, with his fastball clocking in at 91.5 mph, but it wasn't until the next season that the dip in raw stuff showed in his results. In 2023, he posted a 3.80 ERA over 128 innings and creeped toward innings-eater status rather than becoming the frontline starter Cleveland had come to expect.

Bieber came out hot in 2024, though, gaining back a full tick of velo to 92.5 mph, with all of his stuff grades also up, in two sterling starts to begin the year -- but his season ended quickly after that when he underwent Tommy John surgery in mid-April.

Bieber is now hitting free agency with the expectation that he'll be back in a major league rotation by summer 2025, making signing him the equivalent of adding a potential impact starter at the trade deadline for the team that lands him. Almost every front office in baseball would give him a one-year deal for $8 million to $10 million to either be that deadline addition who comes without having to deal away prospects or a pitcher who can be showcased for a handful of starts then flipped for prospects in a deal. With that in mind, I assumed going into the winter that he would get a two-year deal for about $30 million guaranteed, possibly with a club option for a third year, possibly with an opt out, depending on what he wants and what's offered.

But in making calls for my free agent projections, I was advised that Bieber is likely to get a larger guarantee given the broad interest and upside. He is a potential No. 2 or No. 3 starter who is still in his 20s, with a history of durability and command, and even with the heightened interest will demand three years at most at under $20 million per year. This is what almost every team is looking for, with the floor being him returning as a version of his 2023 back-end starter self and the signing becoming a minor disappointment.

I have Bieber projected for three years, $54 million (admittedly the top end of what he could get), and it is a contract that literally any team in baseball could justify offering if it feels strongly about the player. The real question is whether Bieber will take a lower guarantee to get a deal with an opt-out in the first and/or second year so he can hit free agency quickly if he looks like a nine-figure talent once again.

Spencer Turnbull, RHP

Projected contract: 2 years, $13 million

Now to Turnbull. I made a late decision to project him getting a two-year deal instead of a one-year contract for the reasons I'll lay out here. Depending how free agency plays out, I could also see his contract ending up north of this projection -- also possibly exceeding the two years, $15 million Erick Fedde got from the Chicago White Sox last winter. Turnbull just turned 32 years old, hasn't thrown more than 60 innings in a season since 2019 and didn't pitch after June 26 of last season, so it's easy to understand why the total guarantee is low.

But here is why he might make even more than $13 million: His first six appearances last season were all starts before moving to a relief role, and here's his line from those outings: 32⅓ innings, 17 hits, 10 walks, 36 strikeouts, 1.67 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 3.22 xFIP. That's the first fifth of a 4-WAR season that would be worthy of Cy Young votes if he kept it up for a full campaign. He then shifted to the bullpen as the Phillies' injured starters got healthy and lasted about six weeks there before a lat injury ended his season.

What changed to power his strong performance before getting hurt? Basically, he added a sweeper he threw 33% of the time to his existing five-pitch mix, and it was his most effective pitch (a top-10 sweeper in baseball). It isn't shocking he unlocked something in Philadelphia, in a similar way to how Zach Eflin got better in somewhat limited innings with the Phillies before signing a three-year, $40 million deal with the Tampa Bay Rays and turning into a frontline starter.

Over the course of his career, Turnbull has shown bulk innings (148⅓ IP over 30 innings in 2019) and quality as a starter (2.88 ERA, 3.01 xERA, 2.95 FIP in 9 starts and 50 innings in 2021, ended by Tommy John surgery), but never both at the same time. For teams that are looking at Bieber because they want variance (read: potential value) from a pitcher who could be a second or third starter but don't have the appetite for a $50 million gamble, Turnbull is the next best option.

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B

Projected contract: 1 year, $18 million

I heavily considered Michael Soroka here, but that would break my own rules by picking three pitchers, so I pivoted to a former MVP. Michael Conforto, Tomoyuki Sugano and Jorge Polanco also were considered for this one-year-deal spot.

Goldschmidt's five-year, $130 million contract extension just ended, he turned 37 years old recently and the Cardinals chose not to give him the qualifying offer on his way to free agency after his worst season of his 14-year MLB career. Those facts alone would suggest he's toast and could be a candidate to retire before 2025 ends, but that's not what I see.

Goldschmidt's wOBA (a better version of OPS) was .310 last year, but using the most basic predictive metric, his expected wOBA (based on how hard he hit the ball and where) was .333. That suggests rather than his production being as poor as his surface numbers, Goldschmidt was probably more of a low-end regular last season with bad luck that made him look worse.

If you look at his numbers before and after July 21, he was markedly different: He cut his strikeout rate 6% and raised his isolated power from .140 to .217. If you extrapolate his second-half production to a full season, his numbers are almost back to the 3.4-WAR version he showed in 2023. Having a chance at getting a version of that guy on a one-year deal for less than the $21.05 million qualifying offer and with no draft pick compensation attached suddenly seems like a nice opportunity without much risk.

Pete Alonso, 1B

Projected contract: 6 years, $159 million

Alonso turns 30 in December, is coming off the worst power season of his career and has essentially never been a clear positive on the basepaths or defensively while playing the least valuable position on the field. These are the basic first arguments that have been commonplace in the game since Moneyball started the analytics era: Never give top-of-the-market money to players like this.

My high projection for Alonso is fueled in part by the emotional value of his blazing hot postseason and the affinity the deep-pocketed Mets (who have nearly $200 million coming off the books this offseason) have to a homegrown star. If you told me he's going to someone other than the Mets this winter, my projection would drop to about $135 million.

Given his history of production, I could justify paying something in the $100 million to $110 million range if I stretched, but signs point to the back end of any nine-figure deal potentially looking very bad for the team that signs him. If I were a GM, I just think I could spend my free agent dollars better than this kind of investment in Alonso alone -- such as by getting Christian Walker for less than half of what Alonso will likely be guaranteed and spreading the rest of that money out on names from the section above.

Carlos Estevez, RHP

Projected contract: 3 years, $36 million

If the aging slugger is first on the list of player types you don't pay retail price for, the reliever coming off of a career year is next. The reality is that this type of reliever is often an even worse bet, but you don't usually have to pay as much as you do for the aging slugger.

Estevez was a somewhat generic reliever until he left the Colorado Rockies for the Los Angeles Angels on a two-year, $13.5 million free agent deal after the 2022 season. He was solid in 2023, then even better in the first half of 2024, leading to a trade deadline deal with the Phillies that yielded two surprisingly good pitching prospects considering Estevez was a rental.

My projections have Estevez getting a three-year, $36 million deal this offseason for his age 32, 33 and 34 seasons. His velo is already starting to come down from his peak, and he had a career-low strikeout rate in his 2024 campaign, with much of the breakout driven by a career-best walk rate. He throws a fastball that is not much better than average by almost any measure 61% of the time, so he'll likely be forced to make some adjustments in style during this next contract. I think Estevez will be a solid contributor for one, maybe two years of this deal, but the signs don't point to him being an impact type for much longer.

Justin Turner, 1B

Projected contract: 1 year, $10 million

Turner will turn 40 years old next week and is now exclusively a first baseman/designated hitter. He has had two straight seasons of about 1 WAR since transitioning away from third base and has had a steady decay in his hitting ability over the past four seasons, with his power taking a big hit in 2024. Turner is probably still a useful player to roster and I think leadership will be a key factor for the team that signs him, but his production could also fall off a cliff this year with very little upside.