NFL Week 10 predictions fantasy sleepers upset picks buzz

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We're headed into Week 10 of the 2024 NFL season and we're sure you are fully prepared for the loaded slate. But just in case you need some last-minute intel, our NFL analysts have you covered at the 11th hour.

First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down five stat trends that could be pivotal this weekend. Fantasy football writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in under 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues as of Saturday and who could be picked up and started in a jam this weekend. That's followed by NFL analyst Matt Bowen pointing to five potential surprises and NFL analyst Ben Solak picking one team on upset watch. Finally, insider Jeremy Fowler gives the latest buzz, rumors and news you might have missed.

Jump to a topic: Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers Potential surprises | Upset watch Latest buzz

Can the Dolphins stop the Rams' duo runs?

Even in a disappointing season for Miami, its run defense has generally been fine. The Dolphins rank 15th in EPA allowed per designed carry. There is one exception, though -- when they face runs deploying duo, where the offensive line uses double-teams against the defensive line and the running back reads the linebackers to determine which gap to hit. On such runs, they're surrendering 5.5 yards per carry (31st in the NFL) and 0.11 EPA per carry (27th). The sample isn't huge (46 plays), so this could just be noise, but it's a pretty unideal number when you have to face the Rams.

The Rams run duo 40% of the time, per ESPN/NFL Next Gen Stats tracking, by far the most in the league (Giants are second at 31%). And things could be worse for the Dolphins if Los Angeles gets interior linemen Steve Avila (knee) and Jonah Jackson (shoulder) back from injured reserve.

Could Za'Darius Smith have an immediate impact for the Lions?

If the Lions deploy Smith -- their newly acquired pass rusher who will potentially debut against Houston -- mostly on the left side (opposite the right tackle) as the Browns did, then he would be facing Tytus Howard on Sunday night. Howard has a below-average pass block win rate (87.6%), but keep in mind that Smith's pass rush win rate is down this season, too (10.4%).

Instead, the disruptor I'd pick to have a major impact in this game is probably Alim McNeill. His 11.3% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle ranks 10th at the position, and crucially, he'll be going against the weak Houston interior offensive line of Shaq Mason (57th in PBWR at guard), Juice Scruggs (29th at center) and whomever steps in for injured Kenyon Green (shoulder).

Can the Lions use surprise runs to their advantage?

It's no secret Detroit likes to run the ball. But the Lions also like to run out of looks that are usually for passing plays. NFL Next Gen Stats assigns a pass probability ahead of each snap based on the situation and how the offense aligned. When the pass probability is 75% or higher, the Lions still run the ball 22% of the time, the fourth-highest rate in the league. And they have tremendous success when they do this, accumulating 0.37 EPA per play on those runs. That's best in the league and well ahead of their already excellent standard 0.10 EPA per designed runs in all situations.

Though we don't know the exact details of what prompts the high pass probability, we can see that these runs are usually on early downs, in shotgun and in 11 personnel. The lesson for the Texans on Sunday? You always have to be thinking about the run when facing Detroit.

Could Tuli Tuipulotu be in for a big game against the Titans?

For most of the season, Tuipulotu has struggled. He has just a 6.2% pass rush win rate at edge for the season, which ranks 49th out of 51 edge rushers. And through seven games, he had yet to record a sack. But then over the past two weeks, the Chargers' second-year pass rusher has 3.5 sacks. And now he has a great chance to build on that.

Tuipulotu should mostly draw Nicholas Petit-Frere, whose 80.7% pass block win rate ranks 63rd out of 67 tackles in pass block win rate. And Tuipulotu will be chasing down Will Levis, who has a high 10% career sack rate. So even though Tuipulotu's numbers this season have been poor, my sack model gives him a 41% chance to get at least half a sack in Week 10. Plus, if Khalil Mack (groin) sits out the game, Tuipulotu could be in for more playing time.

Will Noah Brown keep up his production against the Steelers?

Brown is on a mini hot streak after recording 73 receiving yards in Week 8 (yes, part of that was the Hail Mary) and another 60 yards in Week 9. And I see one reason why it should continue.

The Steelers run Cover 3 on 36% of their snaps, second most in the NFL behind Carolina. Two route types that perform better in terms of yards per route run against Cover 3 than average? Digs and deep crossers. Brown runs both of those at above-average rates, particularly deep crossers (7%, second highest in the league). It takes only one hit on a deep cross to make a big play, and Pittsburgh's coverage profile makes that more likely.

Xavier Legette, WR, Carolina Panthers (38.2% rostered)

Legette should have a boost in targets following the Diontae Johnson trade to the Ravens. He has scored 11-plus fantasy points in three of the past four games. He faces a Giants defense this week that gave up 15.9 fantasy points to Terry McLaurin in Week 9 and 11.4 to George Pickens in Week 8. So Legette is a solid flex play in deeper formats this week.

Quentin Johnston, WR, Los Angeles Chargers (35.6% rostered)

Johnston returned from a two-game absence and put up his second-best fantasy outing of the season with 22.0 points against against the Browns. Though the Chargers are passing more, Johnston is still averaging only 4.5 targets. He also has a challenging matchup against a Titans defense that has been tough on wide receivers.

But he's projected for the second-most targets in this game behind Ladd McConkey, and he could be a good sleeper play.

Jonnu Smith, TE, Miami Dolphins (19.6% rostered)

Smith has had six or more targets in four straight games. But he has hit double-digit fantasy points only twice in that stretch. The good news? Los Angeles has given up the seventh-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Ray Davis, RB, Buffalo Bills (17.6% rostered)

Davis made the most of his six touches against the Dolphins, racking up 17.0 fantasy points. He also scored 11.7 points on only six touches against the Titans in Week 7.

Now, he'll face a Colts defense that has given up the fourth-most rushing yards and sixth-most receptions per game to running backs. Though James Cook should handle most of the workload, Davis is making a case for more touches. He is a solid flex play in deeper leagues.

Daniel Jones, QB, New York Giants (17.2% rostered)

Jones has two things going for him that fantasy managers should remember. First, Malik Nabers is his No. 1 receiver. Second, the Panthers defense gives up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.

Jones is also heavily used in the running game. In three games in which Jones scored 19-plus fantasy points, he had at least seven rushing attempts.

Tua Tagovailoa throws three touchdown passes against the Rams

The Dolphins can win perimeter matchups with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle against a Rams defense that has given up 15 passing touchdowns (tied for sixth most in the league). Tagovailoa threw two touchdowns in a 30-27 loss to the Bills, and I think he improves by one on Monday night.

Bijan Robinson rushes for over 100 yards against the Saints

Robinson has topped the 100-yard mark only once this season, which was in Week 7 against the Seahawks. But he has totaled 15 or more carries in three of his past four games. The Saints' defense is giving up 5.1 yards per carry, third most in the league. I expect Robinson to have another big volume day and capitalize.

Harrison Smith intercepts Mac Jones

With Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) probably out this week, Jones gets the start for the Jaguars. Smith has only one interception this season, but he has five pass breakups and can cut the Jaguars' in-breaking concepts. Jones threw double-digit interceptions in each of his three seasons with the Patriots. I think Smith gets one Sunday, pushing his career total to 36.

Brock Purdy throws for over 275 yards against the Buccaneers

Purdy is averaging 262.6 passing yards and I like this matchup against Tampa Bay's defense. The Bucs have played zone coverage on a league-high 77.3% of opponent dropbacks, and they are giving up the third-most passing yards per game (255.9). Niners coach Kyle Shanahan will have zone-coverage answers for Purdy on Sunday.

Rome Odunze catches a touchdown against the Patriots

Odunze has only one touchdown reception this season, but he has seen an uptick in volume over the past two games. During that stretch, Odunze has caught eight of 13 targets for 145 yards. Look for the Bears to dial up a deep throw for Caleb Williams to get Odunze into the end zone.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) at Washington Commanders

There's no doubt the Commanders have a good offense, but it is worth wondering how good they are against top defenses. In two games against actual top units (Browns and Bears), they went 2-0 -- but a Hail Mary was needed to win at home against Chicago. I expect Washington to score some on the Steelers, but if it lets too many drives end in field goals, then Pittsburgh's offense will be one big George Pickens catch away from sneaking an upset.

Titans quarterback Will Levis gets a much-needed reboot in Week 10. He hasn't played since Oct. 13 because of a shoulder injury but gets the start against the Chargers. With nine games left, the Titans hope Levis gets a long runway.

What has been made clear to me: The Titans still need to see what they have in Levis, and the evaluation is not complete. But his turnover margins are something to watch. He struggled with curious decision-making early in the season, and if that persists in this next run of starts, that will inevitably be a factor in the evaluation -- as it would be with any quarterback. He has seven interceptions and three fumbles over five starts in 2024.

The status of Trevor Lawrence (left shoulder) appears more week-to-week than day-to-day, with Jacksonville's Week 12 bye looming. The Jaguars have the Vikings and Lions in back-to-back weeks before then, so the team must decide whether to rest him until the bye (coach Doug Pederson said Lawrence was not expected to play Sunday).

And if Jacksonville is 2-9 at the bye, does it really want to put him in there at all? Will he need surgery in the offseason? Lawrence, for one, does want to play once healthy enough. "Wouldn't count Trevor out. Tough dude," one source said.

Lawrence showed that last season, playing through injuries late in the season. But he also sat out practice time as a result, which affected his performance and the team's ability to win. The Jags know he needs the reps to prepare for Sundays. So there's much to consider as the Jaguars plot out their November.

Dak Prescott and the Cowboys are still determining whether his hamstring injury (partial avulsion of the tendon) will require surgery. That decision has not been made. If he needs surgery, he'll probably sit out the rest of the season. If not, the Cowboys are hopeful he can return at some point. But with Prescott set to go on injured reserve, the Cowboys' record coming out of the four-game absence (at minimum) could be a factor here.

Nico Collins (hamstring) just returned to practice Friday, so that's a quick turnaround for Sunday night against Detroit. But his questionable status can be viewed as a good sign. All signals point to no setbacks on his IR stint. And the Texans just opened a roster spot by sending guard Kenyon Green to injured reserve, so Collins could take that spot if activated Saturday.