Bubble Watch [1296x729]
Bubble Watch [1296x729] (Credit: ESPN)

Robin Minz is back and desperate to make up for the year he has lost

The Associated Press poll voters dropped No. 4 Miami to No. 12 this week, a very dangerous place to be in the new 12-team College Football Playoff.

The lower Miami falls, the higher the chances are the Canes could lose a first-round bye that is awarded to the four highest-ranked conference champions. If Boise State runs the table and finishes as a one-loss Mountain West Conference champion, the Broncos will also be eligible to earn a top-four seed.

But the CFP instructs the 13 committee members to disregard all other polls.

"The conferences teams play in don't factor into our decision," selection committee chair Warde Manuel said, "as we don't look at the public polls."

How far the committee drops Miami is one of the biggest questions heading into the announcement of its second of six rankings Tuesday night. Based on how the committee ranked its first top 25 of the season and understanding what the members value each week, here is a snapshot of what the rankings might look like -- through 11 weeks of data.

These are not rankings. This is what the seeding and bracket would look like based on the committee's projected top 25 for this week -- plus a look at eight more teams that could play their way in, and how the Group of 5 race stacks up.

Jump to a topic: Byes | First-round matchups Last two in | First four out Next four out | Group of 5

Projected 12-team bracket

First-round byes

Note: Seeding is based on my projected top 25 from the CFP committee.

No. 1 seed Oregon Ducks: The Ducks are here as the projected Big Ten champs, but the reality is the conference is still a three-way race among Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana. All three teams have at least a 31.3% chance to reach the Big Ten championship game, according to ESPN Analytics. Oregon is expected to be the committee's top team for a second straight ranking, buoyed by the Ducks' undefeated record and head-to-head win against Ohio State. No. 2 seed Texas Longhorns: This is a change from last week, with the Longhorns replacing Georgia for the No. 2 seed in spite of Georgia's head-to-head win against Texas in Austin earlier this season. Now that Georgia has two losses, the records and teams are no longer comparable, making it less likely the committee honors the head-to-head in its rankings. This seeding is based on the projection of Texas being the committee's top SEC team in its second rankings. While the SEC race is still wide open, Texas has the best chance in the league to make the conference title game (63.8%) and win it (38%). No. 3 seed BYU Cougars: This is another significant change following Miami's loss to Georgia Tech on Saturday, giving undefeated BYU a bump over the one-loss Canes. BYU earns the third seed here based on the expectation that the Cougars will be the committee's third-highest-ranked projected conference champion, as winners of the Big 12. According to ESPN Analytics, BYU is the heavy favorite (92%) to earn a spot in the conference title game and also win it (40%). No. 4 seed Miami Hurricanes: The Canes dropped to the fourth seed after suffering their first loss of the season, but they are still on track to face SMU in the ACC title game. Miami now almost surely needs to win out and win the league to earn a spot in the playoff because it probably wouldn't earn one of the seven at-large bids as a two-loss team.

First-round matchups (on campus)

No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at No. 8 Indiana Hoosiers Winner plays: No. 1 Oregon

Explaining the seeding: As an independent, Notre Dame's only path to the playoff is through one of seven at-large bids because the other spots are reserved for conference champions. This unofficial Hoosier state championship matchup would feature the Big Ten's third-best team with home-field advantage against the Irish.

No. 12 Boise State Broncos at No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes Winner plays: No. 4 Miami

Explaining the seeding: Boise State would earn this seed as the Mountain West Conference champion and the committee's fifth-highest ranked conference champion. Because it was No. 12 in the committee's ranking, it would also be the No. 12 seed. Even though Ohio State is the committee's No. 2 team, it can't be seeded any higher than No. 5 because the top four seeds are reserved for conference champions. The Buckeyes would earn a first-round home game.

No. 11 Georgia Bulldogs at No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions Winner plays: No. 3 BYU

Explaining the seeding: Two-loss Georgia would be the committee's fourth and final SEC team in the bracket, but even though the Bulldogs are ranked ahead of two conference champions -- ACC and Mountain West -- they would be seeded below them because the top four seeds are reserved for conference champions. Georgia would also miss out on a first-round home game because those are awarded to teams seeded 5-8.

No. 10 Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 7 Tennessee Volunteers Winner plays: No. 2 Texas

Explaining the seeding: This would be a rematch of the Oct. 19 game that Alabama lost 24-17 at Tennessee. The Vols would get home-field advantage again as the higher seed. The committee doesn't consider rematches when doing its final ranking on Selection Day, nor is there a reseeding process to avoid them. Neither of these teams faces Texas during the regular season. This is the only all-SEC part of the bracket.

Last two in No. 11 Miami Hurricanes (9-1)

Why they should be worried: Boise State has a chance to bump Miami out of a first-round bye if the Mountain West Conference champions are ranked ahead of the Canes on Selection Day. Right now, Miami has a 50.8% chance to earn a bye, followed by Boise State at 50.7%.

ESPN Analytics says: Miami's playoff chances dropped to 61.2% following the loss to Georgia Tech, 11th best in the FBS.

No. 12 Boise State Broncos (8-1)

Why they should be worried: As long as Boise State is one of the five highest-ranked conference champions on Selection Day, the Broncos will be in the playoff, but they still have to achieve that goal. Army is the only other Group of 5 team the selection committee ranked.

ESPN Analytics says: Boise State has the best chance of any Group of 5 team to make the CFP (71%) ahead of No. 2 Army (25.5%).

First four out

Ole Miss (8-2)

Best win: Nov. 9 vs. Georgia, 28-10 Toughest remaining game: Nov. 23 at Florida

Why they are here: The Rebels' win against the committee's previous No. 3 team puts them squarely back in the conversation, but the home loss to Kentucky (3-6) and a poor nonconference lineup that includes an FCS win could still bother the committee enough to rank them behind Georgia. Ole Miss' best chance to reach the CFP is through an at-large bid, and the Rebels now have a better win than anything on SMU's résumé.

Chance to make conference championship: 1.7%

SMU Mustangs (8-1)

Best win: Nov. 2 vs. Pitt, 48-25 Toughest remaining game: Nov. 23 at Virginia

Why they are here:  The Mustangs were on the bubble last week, with their lone loss to undefeated BYU, but unless there are more upsets in front of them, SMU likely has to win the ACC, which is a very realistic possibility. Wins against Louisville and Pitt are helping the Mustangs in the committee meeting room. If they finish with two losses and no league title, though, it probably won't be enough to unseat a two-loss SEC team -- such as the one above.

Chance to make conference championship: 91.4%

Colorado Buffaloes (7-2)

Best win: Nov. 9 at Texas Tech, 41-27 Toughest remaining game: Nov. 23 at Kansas

Why they are here: The Buffaloes are playing well, but their best hope as a two-loss Big 12 team is to win the league, which is realistic. ESPN Analytics gives Colorado at least a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games. The biggest concern is the head-to-head loss to K-State, but Colorado has only one league loss, while the Wildcats have two. If the Buffaloes run the table, they will face BYU, and that's why they're here.

Chance to make conference championship: 55.2%

Clemson Tigers (7-2)

Best win: Oct. 19 vs. Virginia, 48-31 Toughest remaining game: Nov. 30 vs. South Carolina

Why they are here: The Tigers are the most likely spoiler in the ACC race, which is their best chance to reach the CFP. If they run the table, they would add a road win against a ranked CFP team in Pitt and earn a tough win against rival South Carolina, which would be highly regarded in the committee meeting room. Clemson's only two losses are also to ranked CFP teams (Louisville and Georgia).

Chance to make conference championship: 19%

Next four out

Kansas State Wildcats (7-2)

Best win: Oct. 12 at Colorado, 31-28 Toughest remaining game: Nov. 30 at Iowa State

Why they are here: The head-to-head win against Colorado carries some weight, but K-State joins Arizona State, Iowa State and West Virginia with two league losses. Of those teams, K-State has the best chance to reach the Big 12 title game. That slim hope is what's keeping K-State in the mix, but the second league loss is why it is in this batch and Colorado is above.

Chance to make conference championship: 23.8%

Texas A&M Aggies (7-2)

Best win: Oct. 26 vs. LSU, 38-23 Toughest remaining game: Nov. 30 vs. Texas

Why they are here: Texas A&M is one of three teams that controls its path to the SEC title game, along with Tennessee and Texas. But the Aggies and Longhorns play each other in the regular-season finale. According to ESPN Analytics, Texas A&M has only a 5% chance to finish with two losses.

Chance to make conference championship: 20.4%

LSU Tigers (6-3)

Best win: Oct. 12 vs. Ole Miss, 29-26 (OT) Toughest remaining game: Nov. 16 at Florida

Why they are here: LSU has only two league losses, and its third loss is to USC. That third loss will keep the Tigers out of an at-large spot, but as long as they have a chance to win the SEC, they have a chance to reach the CFP. There is no limit to how many losses a conference champion can have, as long as it is one of the five highest-ranked conference champions.

Chance to make conference championship: 12.4%

Louisville Cardinals (6-3)

Best win: Nov. 2 at Clemson, 33-21 Toughest remaining game: Nov. 23 vs. Pitt

Why they are here: Much like LSU, the Cardinals are here simply because of the remote chance they can still reach and win the ACC title game, and they are a CFP top 25 team.

Chance to make conference championship: 5.4%

Dropped from the bubble: Pitt

Group of 5 Power Rankings 1. Boise State Broncos (8-1), Mountain West

Best win: Sept. 28 vs. Washington State, 45-24

Why they're here: The Broncos have the best combination of résumé and eye test, plus the selection committee was impressed with the close loss at Oregon.

Toughest remaining game: Saturday at San José State

Chance to win conference: 75.8%

2. Army Black Knights (9-0), American Athletic

Best win: Nov. 9 at North Texas, 14-3

Why they're here: They're a CFP top 25 team, which indicates the committee is taking them seriously. The Black Knights have the best chance remaining of any Group of 5 team to impress the committee -- against Notre Dame.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 23 vs. Notre Dame

Chance to win conference: 34%

3. Tulane Green Wave (8-2), American Athletic

Best win: Sept. 21 at Louisiana, 41-33

Why they're here: Because they have the best chance to win the American Athletic Conference, their two losses were to Oklahoma and K-State, and they've been quietly crushing their competition lately.

Toughest remaining game: Saturday at Navy

Chance to win conference: 60.2%

4. UNLV Rebels (7-2), Mountain West

Best win: Oct. 19 at Oregon State, 33-25

Why they're here: The Rebels are eight points and one overtime away from being undefeated, and they've still got a chance to win the Mountain West Conference. If they beat Boise State in the league title game and avenge their regular-season loss, the Rebels' playoff chances would increase significantly.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 22 at San José State

Chance to win conference: 20%

5. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (8-1), Sun Belt

Best win: Sept. 28 at Wake Forest, 41-38

Why they're here: Because they've got such a strong chance to win the Sun Belt and they have only one loss -- to Tulane, ranked above -- but they still need lots of help.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 30 at Louisiana-Monroe

Chance to win conference: 55.3%