Fantasy playbook NFL Week 3 scores projections matchups

Sources Army QB Daily to return vs North Texas

Welcome to the Fantasy Football Playbook for Week 3, which kicks off Thursday with the Patriots at the Jets.

This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.

The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.

(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)

Projected score: Jets 24, Patriots 18

Lineup locks: Breece Hall, Rhamondre Stevenson, Garrett Wilson

Braelon Allen scored a pair of touchdowns in Week 2, but the rookie remains no more than a bench stash and insurance option behind Hall. Allen totaled nine touches in the game and was limited to just 36% of snaps -- after he totaled a mere two touches on only eight snaps in Week 1. Allen should be in lineups only if Hall were to miss time.

Over/under: 42.1 (10th highest) Win probability: Jets 71% (4th highest)

Projected score: Browns 24, Giants 15

Lineup locks: Malik Nabers, Amari Cooper

Neither team's running backs can be considered lineup locks this week. After a big Week 1 showing and despite an injury to Pierre Strong Jr., Jerome Ford played on only 42% of snaps in Week 2, compared to 38% for D'Onta Foreman. Ford totaled seven carries and two targets, whereas Foreman managed 14 carries and one target. Ford figures to remain the 1A back, but Foreman's big boost in role (especially in a game Cleveland figures to be able to run plenty) suggests Ford is no more than a flex.

Devin Singletary, meanwhile, has played on a massive 75% of Giants snaps. He posted a strong 16-95-1 rushing line in Week 2, but that was against a shaky Washington defense, and he was limited to only one target. And that's after he was held to 52 yards on 14 touches in Week 1. Singletary is a flex play in a tougher matchup this week.

Over/under: 38.3 (15th highest) Win probability: Browns 79% (highest)

Projected score: Packers 20, Titans 20

Lineup locks: Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley

With Malik Willis under center last week, the Packers called 51 runs and only 16 passes. In turn, Willis was limited to 122 passing yards and no Packer had more than four targets. Despite the run-heavy attack, Jayden Reed was limited to two carries and totaled just 46 yards on four touches in the game. He remains the best deep-league flex, but Jacobs (32 carries last week) aside, this is an offense best avoided if possible.

Over/under: 40.2 (12th highest) Win probability: Packers 51% (15th highest)

Projected score: Colts 22, Bears 19

Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, DJ Moore, Michael Pittman Jr., Keenan Allen

Anthony Richardson has fallen from the "lineup lock" ranks after a rough Week 2 showing in which he tossed three INTs and posted an underwhelming 4-37-0 rushing line. The dud performance may just be a bump in the road, as he did have three TD passes and 26.1 fantasy points in Week 1. Still, he'll have his hands full again this week with a good Chicago defense. The Bears have held both C.J. Stroud (14.3 fantasy points) and Will Levis (6.7) in check thus far. Richardson is a fringe starting option this week.

Over/under: 41 (11th highest) Win probability: Colts 59% (11th highest)

Projected score: Texans 24, Vikings 21

Lineup locks: C.J. Stroud, Joe Mixon, Aaron Jones, Justin Jefferson, Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs

Tank Dell is a fringe lock. The second-year receiver is off to a slow start, having totaled only 72 yards on nine touches. The good news is he has been plenty involved (66% of snaps, and his 11 targets trail Diggs by only one) and the team is manufacturing touches for him in the run game (his five carries is second most on the team). Dell is in the top 25 among receivers in both routes and touches and is, at worst, a flex play against Minnesota.

Over/under: 45.5 (7th highest) Win probability: Texans 60% (10th highest)

Projected score: Saints 28, Eagles 23

Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Alvin Kamara, Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed

With A.J. Brown sidelined last week, the Eagles' WR usage was as follows: Smith had 10 targets on 68 snaps, Jahan Dotson had one target on 55 snaps, Britain Covey saw six targets on 20 snaps, Johnny Wilson had one target on 17 snaps and Parris Campbell didn't have any targets on 15 snaps. Smith was the only Eagles pass catcher to clear 40 yards -- and that includes Dallas Goedert (38 yards on four targets). Dotson clearly can't be trusted as a flex, but Goedert should have better days ahead for as long as Brown is sidelined (likely another week or two). He remains a fringe starting option.

Over/under: 51.7 (highest) Win probability: Saints 67% (8th highest)

Projected score: Steelers 19, Chargers 19

Lineup locks: J.K. Dobbins, George Pickens

Dobbins barely qualified as a lock, and he may seem to be ranked lower than you'd expect, but hear me out here. The 25-year-old back is being carried by unsustainable efficiency, having averaged a ridiculous 9.85 yards per carry. We know Dobbins is good -- his career 6.18 YPC paces the league since he was drafted -- but league history suggests he'll dip closer to the 5.0 range moving forward.

The problem is that the NFL's leading rusher will need to offset the coming efficiency dip with more volume. He ranks only 21st among RBs in carries (27), has yet to carry the ball inside the opponent's 5-yard line and has been limited to 4 yards on four targets. Dobbins is 29th in snaps, 21st in touches and 40th in expected TDs at the RB position. He's in a tougher spot matchup-wise this week against Pittsburgh after showing well against Carolina and Las Vegas.

Consider him to be a fringe RB2, and if he's on your roster, don't be afraid to explore the trade market.

Over/under: 38.3 (14th highest) Win probability: Steelers 50% (16th highest)

Projected score: Buccaneers 24, Broncos 19

Lineup locks: Rachaad White, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans

Broncos RBs are off to a horrific start, ranking 30th in the league in fantasy points. Javonte Williams took more clear control of the unit in Week 2, but he continues to struggle, having totaled only 40 yards on 19 carries (2.1 YPC) and 48 yards on six targets this season. Jaleel McLaughlin hasn't been any better (34 yards on 18 touches). Williams (11 carries and five targets in Week 2) remains the better flex option of the two, and perhaps there's hope for a "fix me" game this week against a Tampa Bay run defense that has allowed the third-most RB fantasy points. Three backs have already produced 17 or more fantasy points against the Buccaneers this season.

Over/under: 43.1 (9th highest) Win probability: Buccaneers 70% (5th highest)

Projected score: Raiders 21, Panthers 16

Lineup locks: Davante Adams, Brock Bowers

There's some hope for the Carolina offense after QB Bryce Young was benched in favor of Andy Dalton. This will still be a hard group to trust in the short term, but Diontae Johnson, who has seen six targets in both games, is certainly still on the WR3 radar. Note that, while Young has completed 55% of his passes and is averaging 4.4 yards per attempt this season, Dalton posted marks of 67% and 7.6 YPA, respectively, when he last played extensively (2022).

Zamir White has had an interesting start to the season. After being out-snapped by Alexander Mattison in Week 1 -- but still managing 15 touches on 23 snaps (39%) -- White took back control of the backfield in Week 2 (65% of the snaps), but was held to 13 touches. White has been held to 84 yards on 27 touches, but the return to lead-back duties and a good matchup against Carolina (20-plus fantasy points allowed to both Dobbins and Kamara) provides optimism for his Week 3 outlook. Consider White to be a fringe RB2.

Over/under: 37.1 (16th highest) Win probability: Raiders 69% (7th highest)

Projected score: Seahawks 22, Dolphins 18

Lineup locks: De'Von Achane, Kenneth Walker III, Tyreek Hill, DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Skylar Thompson is set to replace Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) under center this week. This is a big concern for the team's pass catchers, as we saw when Tagovailoa was sidelined in 2022. In 12 games with Tagovailoa under center for at least half the snaps that season, Hill and Jaylen Waddle combined for 15 TDs. In the five games he was out (or under 50%), the duo had no TDs. Hill's targets, receptions and yardage were similar in the two splits, but Waddle's numbers dipped dramatically. Hill remains a lineup lock (albeit with a lower projection), while Waddle is more of a WR3/flex.

With Walker out for Week 2, Zach Charbonnet played on 95% of Seattle's offensive snaps and managed 14 carries and five targets. He totaled 69 yards and one score on 19 touches after also finding the end zone on 10 touches with Walker active in Week 1. Charbonnet doesn't have standalone value, but if Walker sits again this week, the second-year back will be a solid RB2 play against Miami.

Over/under: 40 (13th highest) Win probability: Seahawks 63% (9th highest)

Projected score: Cowboys 23, Ravens 22

Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, CeeDee Lamb, Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews

Dak Prescott is off to a slow start, but that's not really unexpected considering the competition he has faced (Cleveland and New Orleans). Unfortunately, life may not be any easier this week with the Ravens' defense on tap. Besides, Prescott hasn't exactly been helping his cause with his legs (only 15 yards on three carries through two games). Prescott, who has two passing TDs on the season, is best viewed as a fringe starter this week.

Over/under: 44.8 (8th highest) Win probability: Cowboys 52% (14th highest)

Projected score: 49ers 28, Rams 20

Lineup locks: Brock Purdy, Jordan Mason, Kyren Williams, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle

Deebo Samuel Sr., Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp are all out this week, which opens the door for several new flex options.

For the Rams, Demarcus Robinson (92 yards on 11 targets through two games) and Tyler Johnson (99 yards on 10 targets) will be Matthew Stafford's top options at wide receiver, but keep an eye on rookie Jordan Whittington's progress and expect a larger role for TE Colby Parkinson, who has played on 85% of snaps this season.

Jauan Jennings is the interesting name in San Francisco, although when Samuel was out for two games last season, Jennings posted 54 yards on nine targets in one game and was held without a single target in the other. He's no more than a deep-league flex.

Over/under: 47.1 (5th highest) Win probability: 49ers 75% (2nd highest)

Projected score: Lions 26, Cardinals 25

Lineup locks: Kyler Murray, Jahmyr Gibbs, James Conner, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Marvin Harrison Jr., Jameson Williams, Trey McBride, Sam LaPorta

This game is loaded with lineup locks, and the list includes LaPorta, despite his slow start. Fantasy's reigning No. 1-scoring tight end has been held without a touchdown and just 58 yards on eight targets through two games, but there's reason for optimism. LaPorta's snap share (83%) is identical to his 2023 rate, and his route participation (76%) is essentially the same as last season's (77%). LaPorta currently leads all tight ends in pass routes (67), so better days are almost certainly ahead.

Over/under: 51.2 (2nd highest) Win probability: Lions 56% (13th highest)

Projected score: Chiefs 26, Falcons 24

Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Bijan Robinson, Rashee Rice, Drake London, Xavier Worthy, Travis Kelce

Isiah Pacheco will be sidelined for quite a while and Clyde Edwards-Helaire remains on the NFI list, which sets up Carson Steele and Samaje Perine as the lead backs in Kansas City. Through two games, undrafted rookie Steele has totaled nine carries and zero targets on 18 snaps, while journeyman Perine has zero carries and a pair of targets on 13 snaps. Expect the duo to share the backfield (perhaps with some Keaontay Ingram also mixed in), at least until Edwards-Helaire is eligible to return in Week 5. Both backs are underwhelming flex plays this week against an Atlanta defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest RB fantasy points so far.

Over/under: 49.8 (3rd highest) Win probability: Chiefs 57% (12th highest)

Projected score: Bills 26, Jaguars 20

Lineup locks: Josh Allen, James Cook, Travis Etienne Jr., Evan Engram, Dalton Kincaid

Kincaid barely cracks "lineup lock" status this week, but I certainly recommend patience here. After an ugly Week 1 (1-11-0 on two targets), Kincaid was slightly better in Week 2 (4-33-0 on four targets) despite Buffalo barely needing to throw the ball. Kincaid's route participation (70%) is strong and his 22% target share last week is a good sign for future production. He remains a back-end TE1.

Over/under: 45.8 (6th highest) Win probability: Bills 71% (3rd highest)

Projected score: Bengals 27, Commanders 21

Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Jayden Daniels, Brian Robinson Jr., Ja'Marr Chase, Terry McLaurin

Buyer beware on Mike Gesicki! The journeyman posted a strong 7-91-0 receiving line on nine targets in Week 2, but keep in mind that his 48% snap share ranked third among tight ends on his own team. Gesicki also played on less than half of snaps in Week 1 (35%) and was held to a 3-18-0 line on four targets. Gesicki actually leads the Bengals in targets (13) and air yards (88), but that won't last considering his playing time and the presence of Chase (and eventually Tee Higgins).

Over/under: 47.5 (4th highest) Win probability: Bengals 69% (6th highest)