Shai Gilgeous-Alexander [1296x729]
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander [1296x729] (Credit: Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports)

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To win your fantasy basketball league, you need a little luck.

But luck is just where preparation meets opportunity. So, if you want to have a chance to win, you need to make sure you're prepared. Particularly before you sit down to draft your team, because that is, of course, the biggest single event of your fantasy hoops season.

The first step to preparing for your draft is to decide what you want your team to look like. Most of the people in your leagues aren't going to go into the draft with much of a plan and will instead just hope for the best. So, if you step into the draft with an idea about what the talent looks like at different parts of the draft, it will give you a leg up on the competition right from the opening tip.

The best way to gauge what your team might look like, in my experience, is to do mock drafts before the real drafts to get a feel for what players should be available. Will my sleeper picks be there, or does everyone know about them so they go earlier than expected? Often, there are really good players ranked lower than you might expect who might be available later than you think they should be. Having an idea of how this tends to shake out before you enter your draft can be very valuable for maximizing your squad.

In this article, I highlight players I would like to draft at different locations within the draft. In the early rounds, draft slot makes a huge difference in what players might be available, so I point out players of interest in different parts of the round. In the middle and later rounds, I highlight groups of players I like who should be available in that range. To determine likelihood of availability, I utilize average draft position (ADP) data to offer insight on the type of value that might be available throughout your drafts.

Note: All listed ADPs are as of Sept. 25.

Round 1: Victor Wembanyama

If I get the opportunity, I want Wembanyama (ADP 3.9) in every league that I draft. His upside is off the charts, and he's incredibly fun to watch, so I would probably take him even above more proven options such as Nikola Jokic (ADP 1.8) and Luka Doncic (ADP 2.6) in most scenarios. With that said, Jokic has been the top fantasy points producer for the past four seasons and Doncic led the league in fantasy points per game last season, so I'd be happy leaving any draft with any of the three.

If I'm drafting in the middle of the round, I'm aiming at either Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (4.2 ADP) or Giannis Antetokounmpo (5.2 ADP) because of their proven elite production and position scarcity. Though there are many point guards and centers worthy of high draft picks, there are far fewer swingmen or forwards to choose from at the top. 

Late Round 1: Anthony Edwards

If I'm picking at the back of the round, I'm targeting Anthony Edwards (9.0 ADP). Edwards is only 23 and still on the rise, with back-to-back performances in the playoffs that, if he can replicate them in the regular season, would vault him into the upper crust of fantasy hoops producers. If Edwards is gone, Jayson Tatum (ADP 9.0) is a great fallback with proven production, a history of good durability and still achievable upside at only 26.

Round 2: Anthony Davis or LeBron James

At the top of the second round, because I'd have missed out on the elite options at the top of the draft, I might take a chance on a high-risk/high-reward performer such as one of the Lakers. Davis (12.6 ADP) and James (13.2 ADP) both finished in the top 10 in fantasy points last season, at fifth and seventh, respectively.

The risk is that both played most of last season's games, after combining to miss 60-plus games per season over the previous three seasons. LeBron will also turn 40 in December and is in his 21st season, adding to durability concerns. Both are lottery-ticket prospects in the upper second round.

Late Round 2: Ja Morant or Trae Young

In the middle of the second round, I'm looking at one of two electric point guards. Morant (15.9 ADP) and Young (18.3 ADP) are entering their age-25 and 26 seasons, respectively, a time at when most NBA players hit their peaks.

Morant is returning after suffering a season-ending injury immediately after completing his 25-game suspension last season, and if the award existed in the NBA he'd be a favorite for comeback player of the year.

Young has been coexisting with another All-Star point guard in Dejounte Murray the past two seasons, but with Murray traded and Young still a Hawk (at least for now), he has legitimate 30-point/10-assist upside.

Round 3: Scottie Barnes I'm a big fan of Barnes (21.1 ADP) this season. He earned his first All-Star nod last season, and at only 23 he is still improving. The Raptors traded away all of the star players of the previous administration and enter this season with a young squad built around Barnes. He filled every category last season, and his volume should only increase this season.

Late Round 3: Pascal Siakam or Damian Lillard

Two players I'll be targeting in the third round of drafts are Siakam (28.0 ADP) and Lillard (29.2 ADP). Both were traded last season, from teams where they had proven elite production to new ones where they had to learn to coexist with higher-usage star teammates.

Siakam joined the Pacers later in the season, but never got to play with a fully healthy Tyrese Haliburton ... one of the best distributors in the NBA. If they find synergy this season, Siakam's scoring numbers could flourish as a finisher of Haliburton's dimes in the fast-paced Pacers offense.

Lillard never seemed to find his level playing with Antetokounmpo, who maintained his ultra-high usage and often relegated Lillard to a secondary shooter role. But with a season of playing together under their belts, as well as relief from some of the off-court issues that might have distracted him last season, Lillard could be poised to bounce back.

Round 4: LaMelo Ball or Zion Williamson

If I've gone relatively safe with my first three picks, I would be ready to take a chance in Round 4 on a player such as Ball (34.2 ADP) or Williamson (39.3 ADP). Both are capable of returning first-round value but have injury histories that make them high risks, even in this round.

Ball has lost most of the past two seasons due primarily to serious ankle injuries, but before that he finished with the ninth-most fantasy points in the NBA in his second season.

Williamson is coming off a season in which he played a career-best 70 games (after sitting out 135 of his previous 164 games) but averaged the lowest combined scoring and rebounding numbers of his career. If he can maintain his availability but return to the 27 and 7 he averaged over his previous two seasons, Williamson still has elite fantasy upside.

Safer options in Round 4: Cade Cunningham and Nikola Vucevic

If I've already rolled the dice with a riskier player in the first three rounds, I'm going to go with a safer pick in this round. Cunningham (35.5 ADP) and Vucevic (39.9 ADP) are good values in the fourth round without as much risk-reward roller coaster.

Cunningham is still a young player with plenty of upside, and he took a major step in his third season toward fantasy hoops elite impact. He does have some health-based risk, having never played more than 64 games in a season, but his role is secure as the centerpiece of the young Pistons, so if he's on the court his value is on the rise.

Vucevic is one of those under-the-radar picks who just produces at the same level every season. His averages in all three full seasons with the Bulls have rounded to 18 points, 11 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal and 1 block per game while playing between 73 and 82 games. You know what you're getting from Vucevic, and that's a valuable commodity as well.

Middle rounds (5th-8th): Jalen Green, Desmond Bane and Lauri Markkanen

Green (42.0 ADP), Bane (46.7 ADP) and Markkanen (44.3 ADP) are all being drafted about half a round later than I currently project them.

Green had some growing pains with new coach Ime Udoka last season but averaged almost 30 points during the Rockets' playoffs push.

Bane has proven capable of carrying the scoring load for the Grizzlies with Morant out, but he should also thrive with Morant returning as the focus of opposing defenses and creating easy looks for teammates off the dribble.

Markkanen blossomed into a star player with the Jazz last season, and is still young enough to continue to improve now that he has established himself as their franchise player.

As far as others I'm considering at this stage of the draft, three names stand out.

Jalen Johnson (73.3 ADP) burst onto the scene with the Hawks last season, and now moves into the "second star" role with Dejounte Murray gone. He has 20-point/10-rebound/5-assist upside this season.

Cam Thomas (79.5 ADP) and Anfernee Simons (84.6 ADP) both flashed the ability to potentially lead the NBA in scoring some day ... and that day could be as soon as this season. Thomas is the clear top-scoring option on the rebuilding Nets, and Simons is the offensive engine for the rebuilding Trail Blazers. Either or both could push toward 30 PPG if they prove capable of carrying the scoring load on a nightly basis.

Late rounds (9th round and beyond): Amen Thompson, Ausar Thompson, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Reed Sheppard, Stephon Castle and Shaedon Sharpe

Once we're close to pick 100, my attention is turning to a group of young players with upside.

Amen Thompson (101.6 ADP) and Ausar Thompson (130.5 ADP) are both entering sophomore seasons with untapped upside. Ausar established himself as a double-double threat as a rookie and his role should be bigger this season. Amen dealt with ankle injuries that limited him early, but he flashed late, averaging more than 14 points, almost 10 boards and almost four assists in his final 16 games.

Jaquez (121.6 ADP) is another second-year player with explosive potential. In 20 rookie starts, he averaged more than 15 points, almost five boards and almost three assists. He should get even more opportunity in his second season, particularly if team star Jimmy Butler maintains his pattern of sitting out 20 or more games again this season.

Sheppard (123.5 ADP) and Castle (134.7 ADP) are my highest-rated rookies entering the season. Both backed up their high draft positions by playing very well in the Las Vegas Summer League, and though neither projects to start for their teams, both have the ability to produce if their teams call upon them.

Finally, Sharpe (130.4 ADP) was off to a big start in his second season before injuries ended his campaign. Still only 21, Sharpe has star-caliber upside entering his third season.