Grading bold 2024 season predictions for all 30 MLB teams

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There are plenty of surprises throughout the six-month marathon that is a full baseball season that would be hard to predict -- and 2024 was no different.

For each team, I made one bold but realistic prediction back in our season preview. Yes, there were a few predictions that, shall we say, did not exactly work out. And I only wish I had been brave enough to predict a 50/50 season from Shohei Ohtani.

With the MLB season behind us, it's time to look back at those predictions and give them final grades -- along with a quick look ahead to next season.

The prediction: The Brewers win the National League Central.

The Cubs were the popular pick to win the division -- 16 of our 26 preseason voters picked them while six picked the Reds. Only two picked the Brewers, believing that trading away Corbin Burnes would be too difficult to overcome. As always, the Milwaukee bullpen and defense were stellar, and the offense was better than expected.

Grade: A+

Looking ahead to 2025: Willy Adames is a free agent and some of the starting pitchers might have overachieved, but we've all learned not to overlook the Brewers.

The prediction: Tarik Skubal wins the American League Cy Young Award while holding batters to a .199 average.

Skubal had finished 2023 with a couple of dominant months after returning from injury, so I was hardly the only one to pick him as a Cy Young winner -- three other voters also did so. But I almost nailed that batting average exactly: Skubal held batters to a .201 mark. He'll be the AL Cy Young winner after capturing the pitching Triple Crown.

Grade: A+

Looking ahead to 2025: Really, the only issue was whether Skubal could remain durable for an entire season. He did just that, and he'll enter 2025 as the AL Cy Young favorite -- although no AL pitcher has repeated since Pedro Martínez in 1999 and 2000.

The prediction: Michael King is the Padres' best starter, finishing with a 2.98 ERA and a top-10 lowest OPS among NL starters.

The Yankees won the Juan Soto trade. But so did the Padres. King was indeed the Padres' best starter, going 13-9 with a 2.95 ERA -- although it was a close call between him and Dylan Cease. Oh, and King finished with the sixth-lowest OPS allowed in the NL. Basically, this prediction said King would be one of the best 10 starters in the NL -- and he was.

Grade: A+

Looking ahead to 2025: King had pitched a career-high 104 innings in 2023. The Padres bet that he could handle a higher workload -- and he did, throwing 175 innings. He seemed to get better as the season went along, posting a 2.21 ERA over his final 10 starts and winning both of his playoff starts. He'll have to prove he can be durable on a season-to-season basis, but he should be one of the top starters in the NL.

The prediction: Gunnar Henderson becomes the first Orioles MVP winner since Cal Ripken in 1991 (and mirrors Ripken as a Rookie of the Year winner and then an MVP as a sophomore).

In many years, Henderson's standout season -- 37 home runs, 118 runs, 159 OPS+, plus defense at shortstop, 9.1 WAR -- would make him an MVP winner. That won't happen in 2024 thanks to Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr., but let's give this one a high grade in projecting Henderson turning into a superstar.

Grade: A

Looking ahead to 2025: The Henderson/Witt battle brings back those old arguments about Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Nomar Garciaparra in the late 1990s and early 2000s. We're lucky to have both of these young shortstops. Henderson might have to make some adjustments in 2025: After slugging .956 in the first half, he fell off to .799 in the second half.

The prediction: Zack Wheeler leads the NL in ERA and innings pitched and wins NL Cy Young honors.

Wheeler went 16-7 with a 2.57 ERA and 224 strikeouts in 200 innings -- ranking second in ERA and innings. Close. Unfortunately, Wheeler seems destined to fall just short again in the Cy Young voting and will likely finish second to Chris Sale.

Grade: A-

Looking ahead to 2025: While Wheeler hasn't won a Cy Young Award, it seems clear he deserves the title of "best pitcher in the majors" right now based on his year-to-year track record. He leads all pitchers in WAR since joining the Phillies in 2020 and has been durable other than a few missed starts in 2022 due to forearm tightness. Adding a new splitter in 2024 (batters hit .137 against it with a 40% whiff rate), he held batters to a .192 average and .581 OPS. At 34 years old, he's better than ever.

The prediction: Bobby Witt Jr. goes 30/60, wins a Gold Glove and finishes in the top five of the MVP voting.

Witt had just missed going 30/50 in 2023, finishing with 30 home runs and 49 stolen bases, so this prediction centered on him being even more aggressive on the basepaths. That didn't happen, as he finished with 32 home runs and 31 stolen bases, although the general premise holds true: that he'll be even better. He was -- and had maybe the greatest season in Royals history, hitting a league-leading .332 with 88 extra-base hits and 9.4 WAR (it's either Witt or George Brett's .390 season for Kansas City in 1980). He just won his first career Gold Glove Award and will finish second to Aaron Judge in the MVP voting.

Grade: A-

Looking ahead to 2025: More of the same. Look, it will be hard to repeat a 9.4-WAR season, but nothing in Witt's numbers suggests it was a fluke. There is even room to improve if he cleans up his 25th percentile chase rate.

The prediction: Hunter Greene posts a 3.50 ERA with 200 strikeouts and has the highest WAR for a Reds pitcher under age 25 since Edinson Vólquez in 2008.

The premise here was that Greene was going to have his breakout season -- although, I admit, I think I made essentially the same prediction in 2023. Greene certainly did that, perhaps even better than predicted, going 9-5 with a 2.75 ERA and 6.3 WAR, which is even better than Vólquez posted in 2008. He didn't get to 200 strikeouts, however, as he was limited to 26 starts and finished with 169 K's in 150 innings.

Grade: B+

Looking ahead to 2025: There are two things to note here. First, Greene has to stay healthy, as he missed six weeks near the end of the season with a sore elbow (he returned to make two starts in September). Two, he might have been a little hit-lucky, allowing just a .239 BABIP. His home run rate did drop notably from his first two seasons, so if he can keep that up and he gets to 30-plus starts, he has Cy Young potential.

The prediction: The White Sox use 25 different starting pitchers and stumble to a franchise-worst 107 losses.

We all knew the White Sox were going to be terrible, so my prediction was a stab at history: that they would set a record for most starters used in a season. Turns out their rotation was also actually the "strength" of the team, although they still churned through 17 starters. And they did set the franchise record in losses -- with 121, now the record for most by a team in modern MLB history.

Grade: B

Looking ahead to 2025: They're going to be bad again. Just avoiding 100 losses will be a victory.

The prediction: Ezequiel Tovar hits .300, goes to the All-Star Game and wins the Gold Glove.

Hmm, let's see. Tovar hit .269, so he didn't come close to .300 -- although he was at .302 in early June before tailing off. He did not represent the Rockies at the All-Star Game; instead, it was Ryan McMahon. That was more because of position than anything as Tovar had 3.9 fWAR at the break, while McMahon had just 1.9. Tovar should have been the All-Star rep. He did, however, win the Gold Glove at shortstop over fellow finalists Masyn Winn and Dansby Swanson.

Grade: B-

Looking ahead to 2025: In his age-22 season, Tovar produced an impressive 75 extra-base hits to go with his excellent defense. The issue holding him back is obvious: He had 200 strikeouts and just 22 unintentional walks. He swings at anything between Coors Field and Pikes Peak. He's young enough to improve, but there is also a chance his career eventually goes the Javier Báez route -- where the lack of plate discipline ultimately destroys his offense.

The prediction: Kyle Tucker will go 30/30, post a career-high 6.8 WAR and finish in the top four of the AL MVP voting.

Tucker was on pace to do all these things in early June when he suffered a fracture in his right shin that kept him out until September. He finished at .289/.408/.585 with 23 home runs and 4.7 WAR in 78 games. Double those numbers and he probably does finish third or fourth in the MVP balloting.

Grade: C

Looking ahead to 2025: Tucker enters his final season before free agency and is in line for a huge contract, especially if he hits like he did in 2024 over a full season. He has made three straight All-Star teams and should make it four in a row.

The prediction: James Wood and Dylan Crews get called up, and Wood hits 16 home runs in 80 games while Crews hits .275 with 10 home runs in 60 games.

I nailed the Wood call-up as he played 79 games -- although he hit just nine home runs, not 16. Crews came up a little later than predicted, playing in 31 games and looking a little overmatched at times as he hit .218 with just three home runs.

Grade: C

Looking ahead to 2025: Both young outfielders have star potential but work to do. Wood has to fix a swing that too often produces grounders instead of the fly balls that will allow him to reach his impressive raw power. He rarely pulls the ball in the air, and it's basically impossible to be an elite power hitter if you don't. Crews is a good athlete and maybe just needs some experience, although he didn't rip up the minors, either.

The prediction: George Kirby wins 20 games, joining Jamie Moyer and Randy Johnson as the only Mariners to do so.

Kirby won 14 games, which is pretty impressive given Seattle's less-than-stellar offense. Indeed, Kirby had five no-decisions where he allowed no runs or one run. Alas, 14 wins is not 20.

Grade: C

Looking ahead to 2025: Kirby continued to pound the strike zone -- just 23 walks in 33 starts -- but his overall season was pretty identical to his 2023 season, and his style of pitching is helped a lot by his pitcher-friendly home park (he allowed 17 of his 22 home runs on the road, where he had a 3.89 ERA). Due to the way each site evaluates pitchers, there is also a huge difference of opinion on Kirby's value: 1.9 WAR via Baseball-Reference and 4.2 via FanGraphs. Whatever the truth, it should be more of the same from him next year.

The prediction: Carlos Rodon finishes in the top five of Cy Young voting and starts Game 1 of the ALDS -- after the Yankees win the AL East.

Rodon had gone 3-8 with a 6.85 ERA his first season with the Yankees, so this was mostly a prediction that he would bounce back and be the ace of the Yankees' staff -- and he did bounce back, although not to this level. He finished 16-9 with a 3.96 ERA, although he was the No. 2 starter behind Gerrit Cole. But the Yankees did win the division.

Grade: C

Looking ahead to 2025: Rodon wasn't at the level of his 2021-22 performance that led to the Yankees giving him the big contract, but he made 32 starts, pitched 175 innings and fanned 195. The Yankees will take that again -- perhaps with fewer home runs.

The prediction: Zack Littell wins 15 games and makes the AL All-Star team.

With so many injuries in the rotation, Littell was going to get his first chance to start regularly in the majors, so this was forecasting a breakout season. It kind of happened. He went 8-10 with a 3.63 ERA, good for a solid 2.8-WAR season. He was better in the second half, so he wasn't an All-Star candidate.

Grade: C

Looking ahead to 2025: The Rays have some starters returning, but Littell certainly pitched well enough that he should be back in the rotation.

The prediction: Seiya Suzuki hits .300 with 30 home runs.

Suzuki had crushed it over the final two months of 2023, hitting .350/.406/.667 in 50 games, and I chalked that up to him making adjustments in his second season with the Cubs. However, he ended up with nearly identical numbers to 2023: .283 with 21 home runs in 132 games.

Grade: C

Looking ahead to 2025: Suzuki is entering his age-30 season, and, given his similar production the past two years, it's probably not realistic to expect more in the tank. But he's an above-average regular, and that's a valuable player to have in the middle of the lineup.

The prediction: The Naylor brothers combine for 51 home runs (27 from Josh and 24 from Bo).

Not the most exciting of predictions. It was mostly centered on Bo Naylor having a breakout season in his first full year in the majors. That didn't happen. Josh Naylor hit 31 home runs, but Bo hit just .201/.264/.350 with 13 home runs, seeing his OPS drop almost 200 points from his rookie season.

Grade: C-

Looking ahead to 2025: Will the brothers even remain teammates? Josh is in his final season before free agency and will get a raise from his $6.55 million salary in 2024, which could lead to a trade if the front office believes Kyle Manzardo can take over at first.

The prediction: Wyatt Langford hits 35 home runs, wins Rookie of the Year and finishes in the top 10 of MVP voting.

I blame Jeff Passan for this one. Or Texas pitching coach Mike Maddux. Jeff wrote a story on Langford early in spring training, including this quote from Maddux: "I just saw the best player on the field." Langford, the fourth pick in the 2023 draft, made the Opening Day roster despite limited minor league experience but didn't meet this lofty prediction, hitting .253/.325/.415 with 16 home runs. He probably won't win Rookie of the Year -- Colton Cowser of the Orioles is the favorite, although Langford beat him in WAR 3.9 to 3.1.

Grade: C-

Looking ahead to 2025: Langford certainly held his own with a 111 OPS+. He was better in the second half, hitting 11 home runs in 62 games, so I think there's 30-homer potential here to go with outstanding speed and very good defensive metrics.

The prediction: Triston Casas hits 35 home runs, starts the All-Star Game and leads the Red Sox to a wild-card spot.

As you'll see in some of the entries to follow, injuries affected a lot of my predictions in a negative way -- and all for position players, who are supposed to be more durable than pitchers. Casas tore cartilage in his rib cage in April and played just 63 games, hitting .241/.337/.462 with 13 home runs. The Red Sox did not make the playoffs.

Grade: D+

Looking ahead to 2025: I still believe there's 35-homer potential here, and while fellow first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. bounced back with a big season, Casas has All-Star potential in what is a weak position in the AL.

The prediction: Nolan Schanuel becomes the second player since 2011 to post a .400 OBP with fewer than 10 home runs.

This was based on Schanuel posting a .402 OBP in 29 games for the Angels in 2023 -- after getting called up just a couple of months after being drafted. After he posted an impressive 15% walk rate in that initial stint, it fell off to 11.2% in his full rookie season, but the batting average was a bigger disappointment as he hit .250/.343/.362 with 13 home runs.

Grade: D+

Looking ahead to 2025: Schanuel has a great eye at the plate, with a 91st percentile chase rate and 96th percentile whiff rate, but he just doesn't hit the ball hard enough to scare pitchers from challenging him (he ranked in the 2nd percentile in bat speed). There are some skills here, but he looks a lot like former Angels first baseman Casey Kotchman.

The prediction: The Dodgers acquire Willy Adames from the Brewers to play shortstop and Isaac Paredes from the Rays to play third base.

The idea here was Mookie Betts was not going to last the season at shortstop and the Dodgers would look to improve their infield defense. I wasn't wrong there as Betts eventually ended up back in right field, but suggesting the Dodgers would trade for Adames was pretty odd considering I also picked the Brewers to win the NL Central (suggesting Adames was valuable to them). Paredes was traded, but to the Cubs, not the Dodgers. The Dodgers did trade for Tommy Edman, however.

Grade: D

Looking ahead to 2025: Edman will be around, plus the Dodgers have a $5 million club option on Miguel Rojas, so shortstop projects for now as a combination of those two if they bring back Rojas. Although maybe they'll go after Adames in free agency.

The prediction: Corbin Carroll steals 68 bases and matches Maury Wills' 1962 season at plus-19 baserunning runs.

Wills' baserunning value ranks as the best single-season total of all time, via Baseball-Reference, so this was an aggressive prediction. Carroll had been at plus-12 as a rookie in 2023, when he stole 54 bases in 59 attempts, so I was projecting a big increase in his baserunning value (which combines steals and running the bases). Alas, Carroll's offense fell off and he wasn't quite as efficient stealing, going 35-for-43. He finished at plus-7 runs, tied for fourth in the majors.

Grade: D

Looking ahead to 2025: After struggling with his swing mechanics in the first half, Carroll rediscovered himself in the second half, hitting .259/.351/.568 with 17 home runs in 64 games. I think he'll return to the All-Star form he showed as a rookie, although maybe he won't steal 54 bases again.

The prediction: Jung Hoo Lee hits .301 and becomes the first Giants player to score 100 runs since 2014.

Lee went down for the season May 12 with a shoulder injury, hitting a lackluster .262/.310/.331 in the 37 games he played. The injury makes it difficult to evaluate his performance, as you don't want to draw any conclusions based on 37 games, though he wasn't on pace to score anything close to 100 runs.

Grade: D

Looking ahead to 2025: Lee showed excellent contact skills (8.2% strikeout rate), and his hard-hit rates were solid enough, although he wasn't driving the ball much. I think there's more potential here than he showed, and you have to give him more time to get acclimated and adjust to major league pitching.

The prediction: Ronald Acuna Jr. becomes the first back-to-back MVP winner in the NL since Albert Pujols in 2009.

Acuna tore his left ACL on May 26 and missed the rest of the season. He was not having an MVP start to his year, hitting .250/.351/.365 with just four home runs in 49 games (he had already been bothered by a sore knee in spring training, which perhaps affected his performance even before the ACL tear).

Grade: D-

Looking ahead to 2025: Acuna has now torn the ACL in both knees. When he tore the right one in 2021, he missed the first month of 2022, although his injury this year occurred earlier in the season. Aside from that, his strikeout rate in 2024 climbed back up to his career norms at 23.9%, after dipping all the way down to 11.4% in his 2023 MVP season. I thought that lower strikeout rate was a real improvement, but maybe it wasn't.

The prediction: Nolan Gorman cracks 40 home runs and Jordan Walker hits 30 -- but the Cardinals miss the playoffs with 80 wins.

Yuck. Both Gorman and Walker regressed in a big way. Gorman hit .203 with 19 home runs and was finally sent down to Triple-A in August -- and the Cardinals didn't even bother bringing him back when rosters expanded. Walker hit .201 with five home runs in 51 games, spending April in the majors and then not returning again until August. He didn't hit all that well in Triple-A either. At least the playoff part was right: The Cardinals won 83 games and missed the postseason for a second straight year.

Grade: D-

Looking ahead to 2025: Who knows? Both are still young, but it's an obvious concern when young players go in the wrong direction. Gorman just has too much swing-and-miss -- he ranked in the 1st percentile in both whiff rate and strikeout rate. Walker's strikeout and walk rates both went in the wrong direction, and his average against fastballs dropped from .289 in 2023 to .185 in 2024.

The prediction: A.J. Puk moves to the rotation and wins 12 games with a 3.56 ERA and 170 strikeouts.

With all their rotation injuries, the Marlins moved Puk from a relief role to the rotation in spring training. I thought it was a good idea because Puk had been a top prospect with the A's as a starter. Well ... it was a disaster. The Marlins gave Puk four starts, and he went 0-4 with a 9.22 ERA and 17 walks in 13⅔ innings. I'm not sure four starts proved anything, but Puk moved back to the bullpen and pitched the best baseball of his career, with a 1.72 ERA as a reliever (and getting traded to Arizona). That doesn't salvage the prediction, however.

Grade: F

Looking ahead to 2025: Puk will play a key role in the Arizona bullpen, perhaps even taking over as the closer with Paul Sewald a free agent.

The prediction: Bo Bichette leads the AL in hits for the third time and wins his first batting title with a .323 average.

Bichette had been remarkably consistent in his first five seasons, hitting .290 to .311 each year. With him turning 26 years old, I projected a little improvement and a batting title. Instead, it was a lost season, as Bichette played just 81 games and hit .225, battling recurring calf injuries and then a broken finger that ended his year.

Grade: F

Looking ahead to 2025: Were the injuries to blame? The first calf injury didn't pop up until mid-June and Bichette was hitting just .237 at the time, so that's not the full explanation. It's worth noting that Bichette, who is always hyperaggressive, didn't hit particularly well the final two months of 2023 and his hard-hit rates that season (along with his walk rate) declined from 2022. His speed metrics have dropped as well. This could be a player losing some of his athleticism. He has a lot to play for in 2025 before heading into free agency after the season.

The prediction: Ke'Bryan Hayes hits .300 with 25 home runs and wins the Platinum Glove as the best overall defender in the NL -- leading to a top-10 finish in the MVP voting.

Ugh. Hayes wasn't even one of the 10 best Pirates, let alone one of the 10 best players in the NL. He had finished strong in 2023, leading to this optimistic prediction, but cratered at the plate this season with a .573 OPS. Some of that was related to a back injury that finally led to a season-ending IL stint in August.

Grade: F

Looking ahead to 2025: The back issue has popped up before, so the Pirates must be concerned about his future. Hayes is signed through 2029, so they need to figure out how he can manage the problem.

The prediction: Esteury Ruiz records the first 80-steal season in the majors since Rickey Henderson in 1988.

After Ruiz stole 67 bases as a rookie, this seemed reasonable -- assuming he would get on base more often to give himself more opportunities. Instead, he was sent down to the minors a week into the season. Ruiz was back a couple of weeks later but didn't hit, and then he hurt a knee and finally had surgery in September.

Grade: F

Looking ahead to 2025: The lack of power and plate discipline probably will keep him in a backup role at best, and, though fast, he's not a good defensive center fielder (and JJ Bleday played well to win starting honors there for 2025).

The prediction: Edouard Julien becomes just the third player in Twins history to hit 30 home runs with a .400 OBP.

Julien had posted a .381 OBP with 16 home runs as a rookie in 109 games, but this was still way too hopeful considering only two second basemen (Rogers Hornsby and Jeff Kent) had reached those 30/.400 figures in the same season. Julien was just bad at the plate, hitting .199/.292/.323 and earning a demotion back to the minors.

Grade: F

Looking ahead to 2025: The plate discipline is elite, so there's a chance Julien will rebound, but the swing-and-miss is a problem and his poor range at second is a drawback as well. He might end up as a platoon bat or move to first base to replace free agent Carlos Santana.

The prediction: With the Mets under .500 at the trade deadline, Pete Alonso is traded to the Mariners.

This looked pretty good in early June, when the Mets were 24-35. They righted the ship and went all the way to the NLCS, and now Alonso heads into free agency. Hey, at least I got the other part sort of right: The Mariners traded for a first baseman, but it was Justin Turner. Does that count?

Grade: F

Looking ahead to 2025: The Mets will attempt to re-sign Alonso in the offseason. He clearly means more to them than to any other franchise. He should be back in a Mets uniform.