Stro_BD241001 [608x342]
Stro_BD241001 [608x342] (Credit: Luke Hales/Getty Images)

Feels like we re in rarified air - WA face their toughest test in pursuit of history

Be honest: Back when the season began, did you forecast an American League Division Series round that included the New York Yankees (plausible) and three AL Central teams, none of which are the Minnesota Twins (are you kidding)?

In the National League, things are less surprising. The league's powers -- the Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres -- are still alive, and in a thrilling three-game wild-card victory by the New York Mets over the Milwaukee Brewers, there really was no outcome that could be termed an upset.

The wild-card round was exhilarating to watch, but now it's time to move on, for the winners and for the teams that were waiting to find out the identity of their LDS opponent.

Let's take an initial glance at the pairings by considering the viewpoints of the teams who were watching the first round along with the rest of us. What did they see that might give them pause? What did they see that might have them licking their chops?

Let's assess. Teams are listed in order from most concerned to least concerned, but here's a spoiler: None of the four bye teams should be worry-free.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Opponent: San Diego Padres

As resilient as the Atlanta Braves were in the face of one major injury after another, the Dodgers had to have had their proverbial fingers crossed in hopes of an Atlanta upset. They would never say so publicly, of course, but it's only human nature. That's because while the Dodgers have the Shohei Show and Mookie Betts and another powerhouse regular season behind them, the Padres look like an absolute wrecking ball.

By winning percentage, these have been baseball's two best teams since the All-Star break. The Padres (43-20) have the top spot over the Dodgers (42-23), but whereas L.A. went 24-10 at home during that span, San Diego rolled up a 24-12 mark on the road. The Padres are not going to be concerned about playing in Dodger Stadium, or anywhere else for that matter.

For the Dodgers, the wild-card round showed them a Padres squad that not only dominated Atlanta but did so in a way that reflected precisely the October team San Diego wants to be. In a round in which longballs and runs in general were hard to come by, the Padres went deep three times and had the highest average exit velocity of the eight squads (90.6 mph, per TruMedia). They were aggressive and got the bat on the ball, finishing with the lowest wild-card round strikeout rate. On the pitching side, they racked up 23 whiffs against one walk versus Atlanta.

In Shohei Ohtani and Betts, the Dodgers have the two best players in this series. The Dodgers also have more top-to-bottom power in the lineup. However, when you look at these teams against each other, it's harder than you think to come up with a comprehensive argument about why, exactly, you'd pick the Dodgers to win. Indeed, while the predictive power of regular-season matchups is nil, the fact of the matter is the Padres won eight of the 13 meetings.

None of that means the Dodgers can't or won't win. It just means they are starting this series on more or less equal footing against their biggest rival, one hungry for a first World Series title they know they can win.

Dodgers concern level: High, and it ought to be.

Philadelphia Phillies

Opponent: New York Mets

This is the third straight postseason for the Phillies and they've advanced to at least the NLCS the previous two trips. The core of the team has remained mostly intact -- a group that has been through the October wringer together -- and it has resulted in a lot of wins in high-stakes games.

For much of this season, the 2024 edition of the Phillies looked like the best we've seen, and staked a claim to being the best team in the majors. The Phillies' 95 wins were five more than last season and eight more than the 2022 team that went to the World Series. Philadelphia won its first division title in 13 years.

All of these things are reasons the Phillies are a team with a great deal of swagger as the NLDS approaches. Still, the Phillies didn't finish the season in an ideal way. And they now face a Mets team that has been in full-blast playoff mode for more than a week.

The Phillies won more than they lost down the stretch, but they did so by wielding a five-runs-per-game hammer that isn't likely to make an appearance against the New York pitching staff. While they were scoring all these September runs, they were giving them up at a rate of 4.9 per contest. The rotation ERA was an MLB-worst 5.68.

Philadelphia was digging deep for starting pitching options, but it wasn't just the fill-ins behind that number. Really, only Zack Wheeler and Cristopher Sanchez were completely on top of their games. Even Aaron Nola had some struggles, especially with keeping the ball in the park.

It feels as if the Phillies have been stuck in waiting mode for weeks, waiting for this series to arrive, whomever the opponent was going to be. The Mets come in fresh off a hard-fought three-game series win over a Milwaukee club that had a better regular-season run differential than the Phillies. That win came after the thrilling day-after-the-season win over Atlanta that allowed them to get to the playoffs in the first place.

This is another rivalry series and it's going to be intense. We'll see if Philly is ready to tune into the frequency the Mets are already more than used to.

Phillies' concern level: Bring it on.

Cleveland Guardians

Opponent: Detroit Tigers

You don't have to tell the Guardians that the Tigers and Kansas City Royals can play -- they went 12-14 against those clubs during the regular season, with a minus-19 run differential in those games. Nevertheless, you have to think the Guardians fully expected to welcome the Houston Astros to Progressive Field on Saturday.

Despite being division foes, Cleveland and Detroit played the last of their 13 head-to-head encounters July 30. The Guardians were in addition mode on that day -- trade deadline day -- and featured newcomer Lane Thomas in their lineup. The Tigers were subtracting then, and you could see why: Cleveland won 5-0 to go 15 games up on Detroit in the division standings.

Because the Guardians haven't seen the Tigers since their rocket went boom, you'd have to think Cleveland is a little befuddled to see them again, in this context. Just who are these guys and what have they done with the old Tigers?

The Guardians are baseball's youngest team in terms of overall average age, but that calculation considers the full season. This post-deadline version of the Tigers is even younger. The Guardians thrived all season with a deep, airlock of a bullpen; the Tigers have built a very similar apparatus and have bullpenned their way through many games, from stem to stern.

You could keep going. The Guardians have the best position player in the series in Jose Ramirez, but the Cleveland rotation doesn't have anybody close to the level that Tigers ace Tarik Skubal is on right now.

This is a new Tigers puzzle the Guardians will have to solve, and they'll find the problem is more difficult to solve than it was the last time Cleveland played Detroit.

Guardians' concern level: Wait, where are the Astros?

New York Yankees

Opponent: Kansas City Royals

There's an easy David versus Goliath narrative to this season, but to see it that way would be to overplay the Yankees' strengths and underplay the virtues of the Royals.

The Yankees are fairly heavy favorites and should be, but this is no on-paper mismatch. Besides having the AL's best record, New York had the AL's best run differential (plus-147) -- but the Royals were tied with the Astros for No. 2 (plus-91). If you believe in such portents, you could argue this is a matchup of the AL's two best teams.

The Yankees can take solace in the massive edge in pure firepower they enjoy with the Juan Soto-Aaron Judge tandem. The Royals have a parade of lefties they can throw at Soto, not that the same-sidedness matters with him. They have a nicely contrasted righty reliever duo to throw at Judge in high-leverage spots in Lucas Erceg and John Schreiber. But this assumes the timing around the three-batter requirement allows for such matchup specialization. When they are rolling, there are no good answers for the Soto-Judge stack anyway.

But if the Royals can neutralize Soto or Judge (or both), the Royals are one of the few clubs with a top-of-the-roster talent to match the Yankees because of Bobby Witt Jr. Witt, the long-waited-for inheritor of George Brett's place as the face of the franchise, probably knows the history behind this once-fierce but long-dormant rivalry. Brett feasted on the Yankees, and if Witt is Brett's successor in that way, as well, the Yankees could be in for a long week.

The Yankees should feel confident about this matchup. They've been the AL's best team and are a solid favorite. But they shouldn't be too confident because this Royals team has better starting pitching, more speed, better team defense and, arguably, a superior right-now bullpen. In other words, this Royals team can beat them, and there is a lot riding on New York's ability to flex that big edge in firepower.

Yankees' concern level: Middling, with the potential for hubris.