Solak s Week 5 NFL picks The favorites game totals and props to target

Deep-ball success key for Vikings Sam Darnold going from bust to NFL MVP candidate

Welcome to Week 5! Did Week 4 feel far more normal to anybody else? Well, save for the Denver Broncos winning a game with 53 passing yards and Joe Flacco making another appearance, of course. We're out of the early doldrums of the quasi-preseason and into the swing of things now -- just in time for bye weeks and London games to throw a new wrinkle into understanding the NFL.

I have three key games to watch this week, with a game-level bet for each (side or total), as well as a prop for each -- and a few more lines and props I'm targeting that you'll find at the bottom of the page.

All odds current as of publication time and courtesy of ESPN BET.

Jump to: Week 4 recap  | Packers-Rams | Cowboys-Steelers | Saints-Chiefs | Quick hits and SGP

It was nice to get a positive week under our belts after getting housed in Weeks 2 and 3. We missed our parlay by just 4 yards two weeks ago. This week, we missed it by one! That, along with 14 non-offensive points being scored in Falcons-Saints, still stings -- even on a winning week. Either way, it's time to start stacking weeks.

Week 4: 6-5 (+1.45 units)

Overall: 17-25 (-5.93u) Spread: 3-5 (-2.19u) Total: 4-4 (-0.44u) Props: 10-12 (-2.5u) Same-game parlay: 0-4 (-0.8u)

It never feels safe taking an over in this modern NFL with all the failed fourth-down attempts and failed fourth-down conversions and passing offenses stuck in neutral. But every so often, the stars align: the stars of two very good passing games and two pretty bad pass defenses. And the rare chance to take an over presents itself. That is the case in Los Angeles on Sunday afternoon, when the Packers visit the Rams.

The continued success of the Rams' offense despite the absences of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua is one of the stories of the season. Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has made guys such as Tutu Atwell, Demarcus Robinson, Jordan Whittington, and Tyler Johnson look like star receivers. Head coach Sean McVay has continued to scheme guys open with near impunity. The Rams, as a team, are fourth in overall success rate and second in rushing success rate. After a quiet start to the season for running back Kyren Williams, the offensive line has settled into some degree of normalcy, and Williams is back to his lead-back ways, grinding out 5 yards a pop.

Now, using metrics to evaluate how good the Packers' offense is presents a much bigger challenge. They had two Malik Willis-led weeks, in which the entire team philosophy was centered on a whirlygig running game and nursing a second-half lead. One of their two Jordan Love games was on a Brazilian field that presented big troubles for quarterback and wide receivers alike, and the other Love game was against Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores -- the toughest defensive draw in the league right now.

This week? It's the easiest defensive draw in the league: the Rams. Bottom five in every defensive metric we've got -- EPA, success rate, down set conversion rate, points per drive. The Rams are hoping to return CB Darious Williams to the starting lineup after he began the season on IR, and first-round pass rusher Jared Verse is having a greater impact week after week, but this still remains a shaky unit. They lose to the deep ball, they lose to the running game, and they lose to yards after the catch.

Even though we aren't exactly sure what the Love-led Packers offense is just yet, I'm willing to bet on them against this defense. Love is ripping off explosive passes at a top rate, but with a low completion rate and EPA given the high degree of difficulty he's inviting (as well as the picks). Fortunately, he won't need to dig his way out of a four-score hole against the Rams as he did against the Vikings last week, and the offense should be able to run the ball more than well enough to stay ahead of the sticks.

Inasmuch as I'm buying stock in the Packers offense, I'm selling it on the defense. I am always suspicious of defenses with tons of early-season takeaways, and the Packers have a cool 12 takeaways in four games so far. Having 3.0 turnovers per game is simply not a sustainable number -- and even if they regress down to one or two turnovers, that can help the over when they generate short fields.

When the Packers aren't ending drives with takeaways, they aren't stopping much of anyone, especially in the air. They're sixth worst in success rate against dropbacks this year, which is just below the Rams at fourth. They're bottom 10 in touchdowns per drive allowed, just as the Rams are. I'd buy their ability to create havoc and get splashy stops more if they were consistently winning with a four-down pass rush, but by pass rush win rate, the Packers are stone-cold last in the league.

Again, noise is hiding the struggles of the Packers defense. They've gotten a high pressure rate and sack rate as a function of the quarterbacks they've faced: Jalen Hurts, Will Levis, and Anthony Richardson all like holding onto the football and inviting pressure. Even Sam Darnold, for as well as he's playing this year, takes a long time to throw and accordingly invites pressure. I have no doubt that the Packers will be able to get some pressure on Stafford (most teams have), but Stafford will punish you if you blitz him, and I'm wholly unconvinced by the Packers' front four at this stage of the season.

The bet: over 48.5 total points (-110)

Last week, I took a passing over against the Rams' defense which missed. I'm tempted to go back to the well. The Rams remain the worst deep-passing defense in football. I am concerned, however, about the wild spray of accuracy we've seen from Love this season, and by the improving pass rush in Los Angeles. As such, I expect Packers head coach Matt LaFleur to normalize game script and rely on an early and heavy dose of Josh Jacobs.

Jacobs had big games against both the Eagles and Colts before running into a surprisingly ferocious Titans run defense in Week 3, then quickly losing his touches in Week 4 after the Packers fell into a huge early hole against the Vikings. Jacobs is still the No. 1 back in Green Bay ahead of Emanuel Wilson, and the Rams' run defense is just about as shaky as the pass defense: bottom five in just about every metric we've got.

The bet: Jacobs 60-plus rushing yards (-135)

It will be very interesting to see how the Rams try to slow the rushing attack down. They've run more base personnel (that's only four defensive backs on the field) than every defense in the league, save for the Lions, but some of that has been a function of their opponent. They've played teams that want to be in heavier offensive personnel (49ers, Cardinals, Lions) and have matched them accordingly.

But the Packers want to run out of lighter personnel and more spread formations. They've been in 11-personnel on 70% of their runs this year, which is a top-five number, and their 6.1 yards per play is top five as well. Keep an eye on this game live, and if the Rams start trying to stick an extra linebacker on the field to stop the run even when the Packers have three wideouts on the field, look to take some Jayden Reed receiving props out of the slot.

It feels like everyone is on the Steelers this week, which is never a great feeling when you're also on the Steelers. This line opened at Steelers -2. But Pittsburgh matches up wonderfully against Dallas, and they're catching Dallas one week off of some terrible injuries. The Cowboys were favored on the road before "Thursday Night Football" during which they lost both Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence -- almost certainly their two best defensive players. When the line re-opened, the Steelers were 1.5 point favorites, and have since moved to 2.5. I would not take this line if it got to -3, but at -2.5, I still feel comfortable with it.

The bet: Steelers -2.5 (-115)

The primary reason to have faith in the Steelers is the strength of their running game against the weakness of Dallas' rush defense. Yes, the Cowboys looked better against the Giants last Thursday, with nose tackle Mazi Smith playing the best game of his young career in the trenches. But I think the Giants' rushing attack is just plain bad, and their team isn't built to run the ball. The Steelers, on the other hand, are running three-receiver sets at one of the lowest rates in the league so that they can get extra bodies involved in the running game. The offensive philosophy of Arthur Smith's system is built to take advantage of a defense like this.

Now, Pittsburgh's rushing attack doesn't look that productive on paper: 26th in success rate, 28th in EPA per designed rush. However, in the past three weeks they've played the Chargers, Broncos, and Colts, all of which are top-10 defenses against the run no matter which way you slice the numbers. Pittsburgh has arguably faced the toughest stretch of run defenses to start the season, and now, they get Dallas: worst in EPA per rush allowed, seventh worst in success rate per rush allowed.

The Steelers should be able to play their style of game against Dallas: controlling the clock, stringing together long drives and dominating at the line of scrimmage. The Steelers' offensive line will have to endure yet another early-season shuffle, as guard James Daniels left their Week 4 game with an Achilles tear and is now out for the season. However, other starting guard Isaac Seumalo, who missed the first four games, is returning to the active roster for the Sunday night game. They don't have a great line, but they have enormous ball carriers (Najee Harris, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Justin Fields) who will test the physicality of that undersized Cowboys line -- particularly on the edges, where Parsons and Lawrence's absences will be felt.

Even if the Cowboys' run defense "success" carries over from Week 4 into Week 5, we know that the Cowboys' secondary is eminently gettable with DaRon Bland still on IR. Fields has looked calm and in control -- a huge development from his Chicago play, and critical against a Cowboys defense that wants to invite havoc and create turnovers. I don't see the Cowboys generating a consistent pass rush without Parsons and Lawrence, and Fields showed last week that he can handle a negative game script as the Steelers trailed the Colts.

I'd love to take a Steelers rushing prop, but with Jaylen Warren questionable for this game, no backs have yet been posted for Pittsburgh, and Fields' number is a little rich for my blood. Instead, I'm going to the other side of the ball, and looking for the Cowboys to funnel the football to CeeDee Lamb on a negative game script.

There was a concerted effort to get Lamb activated in Week 4 following a frustrating Week 3. Lamb had 10 total touches (including three rushes) and largely worked underneath before popping one big play on a huge catch-and-run. Lamb has always been Dak Prescott's preferred target against single-high defenses, as he trusts Lamb to get open in isolation against opposing cornerbacks on the sideline. This season, Lamb is averaging a target on 32% of his routes against single-high defenses for 2.96 yards per route run, as opposed to 15% of his routes for 1.74 yards per route run against split-field safeties.

By NFL Next Gen Stats' charting, no team has run more single-high safety coverages this season than the Steelers, who are playing with one deep safety on 75% of their dropbacks. While they do have a nice outside corner in Joey Porter Jr., he is not an elite cover man to erase Lamb entirely -- and he'll likely not follow Lamb into the slot, where Lamb can feast on rookie starter Beanie Bishop Jr..

I like Lamb for a big game independent of game script, but I particularly like him for a lot of volume if the Cowboys are trailing in the second half, as I expect they will be. The best look available on ESPN BET right now is on Lamb to have seven-plus receptions, but I'll be looking for alternate lines all the way up to 10 this week.

The bet: Lamb over 6.5 receptions (-140)

As I wrote in my Tuesday column off of Week 4's action, I'm extremely worried about the Chiefs without Rashee Rice. Travis Kelce simply does not have the legs to sustain a high volume of targets over an entire season, nor the juice to turn those targets into explosive gains as he once did. And the passing offense has no hope but to go through him. Without Rice, Hollywood Brown, or RB Isiah Pacheco, there are simply no reliable stick-movers on the field for the Chiefs offense.

I'm interested to see what short-term solutions Andy Reid deploys, but drawing the Saints' defense in their first week is a tough ask. New Orleans' defense is a little tricky to figure out given some of the odd, turnover-heavy games they've played recently (and the huge leads they nursed earlier in the season) but I think they're pretty good. They're sixth-best by success rate and seventh best by EPA per play when removing plays with win probabilities beyond 95% (i.e., removing garbage time). Their greatest strength is their cornerback room, which will be at enormous advantage against this depleted corps of Chiefs pass catchers. The Saints are allowing an expected completion percentage of only 62.3% this season, which is third-best in the league. Passing windows are tough to find against New Orleans.

The Saints' defense is a little polarized, though. They're allowing fewer touchdowns per drive than any team in the league, but they're actually forcing punts and three-and-outs at one of the lowest rates. You can move the ball on this team. You just have to do it very methodically and, when you do, you run into one of the best red zone defenses in football right now. Oh, and don't turn the ball over: the Saints are top-three right now in takeaways.

While the Chiefs' defense doesn't have the same success in takeaways, they're also battening down the hatches well in the red zone. The Saints are first in touchdowns allowed per drive, but the Chiefs are 11th. The Saints are first in red zone efficiency, and the Chiefs are seventh. Dennis Allen and Steve Spagnuolo are two of the best defensive gameplanners we've got in football, and they know how to get off the field when it matters.

Yet despite the Chiefs' accumulation of injuries on offense, and despite the success of these scoring defenses, we've seen this total rise over the week! It's gone from 42.5 up to 43 and even to 43.5. I'm very suspicious of this movement. Short of a few huge explosive plays from the Saints (which is certainly possible) and a couple more from the Chiefs (with... Xavier Worthy, I guess?), I don't think you'll see these teams move the ball fast enough to go punch-for-punch with scores. It feels like a night for field goals and situational football. I'm taking the under at 43.5, and if this gets up to the key number of 44, I'll take it again.

The bet: Under 43.5 total points (-115)

I'm not going to reinvent the wheel with my look on props, either. I'm fading the Chiefs' passing offense hard before the market corrects on the struggles of this offense, especially against this Saints defense, so I'll be going under on Patrick Mahomes' passing yards.

He's only been over once this season, just clearing his number against the Ravens. He's got the shallowest average depth of target of any quarterback this season. Mahomes will need at least one or two deep connections to get above this number and, even then, there's no Rice to accumulate yards after the catch on all those screens and shallow targets.

The bet: Mahomes under 224.5 passing yards (+110)

This is the lowest passing yardage line for Mahomes in TruMedia's database, which goes back to the beginning of the 2022 season. But going back to the start of last season, when the Chiefs' passing game began tailing off, Mahomes has been under his passing yardage line in 16 out of 24 games.

Commanders TE Zach Ertz UNDER 29.5 receiving yards (-130)

I always look to fade the tight end who is facing the Browns' defense, as tight ends are best against zone teams with shaky safety play, and the Browns prefer man coverage (and have a great coverage safety in Grant Delpit). This is a particularly nice spot, as Ertz is largely an underneath stick-mover for the Commanders' offense. While Ertz is running a lot of routes, we know that Jayden Daniels would prefer to either test man coverage downfield or tuck-and-run before taking a checkdown. I expect a heavy dose of the running game from the Commanders as well, which will take Ertz off the field in favor of the Commanders' other tight ends, Ben Sinnott and John Bates.

Dolphins at Patriots UNDER 36.5 total points (-115)

Pinch your nose and dive in with me. Taking the under on a 36.5 total feels terrifying, but I can't find any points in this game. The Patriots' offensive line continues to accumulate injuries, which hurts their running game -- the only way this team can hope to move the football. Meanwhile, the Dolphins continue to look listless without Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback, and now they're on a short week turnaround facing a divisional opponent on the road. This thing might end 13-9.

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson OVER 9.5 rushing attempts (+110)

The Bengals' defense invites rushing attempts from scrambling quarterbacks, as they drop into their zones and deny pass attempts. That, plus the enormous weakness of the run defense, leads me to believe it'll be a big game for Jackson on the ground. We haven't seen Lamar need to run for four quarters lately, given the big leads the Ravens established on the Cowboys and Bills. However, I expect this AFC North game -- like all AFC North games -- to be close. In four of the last five games Jackson has played against the Bengals, he has had double-digit rushing attempts. In the one he didn't, he had nine.

Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr. 50-plus receiving yards (-135)

I love a big outside receiver against the Colts, as defensive coordinator Gus Bradley is perfectly happy to leave his outside cornerbacks on an island for four quarters. Nico Collins had success. George Pickens had success. Now, it's Thomas' turn. Thomas is quickly becoming a trusted target of Trevor Lawrence, who has reliably connected with him downfield and intermediate, often looking his way against single-high defenses (which the Colts main). I wouldn't mind taking 60-plus and 70-plus yards at plus-money here, too.

Same-game parlay: Brock Purdy under 274.5 passing yards, James Conner 60-plus rushing yards, Jordan Mason 90-plus rushing yards and Mason to score (+750)

I usually don't like to stick all yardage props in a parlay, but the game script here is too clear to ignore. Kyle Shanahan loves to run the football on Johnathan Gannon's defense. Christian McCaffrey had 115 yards on 18 carries in their December meeting after posting 106 on 20 carries in their September game. He had three touchdowns in both games. (Read that last sentence again.)

If the Cardinals have the expected success in the running game, then Purdy's arm won't be needed and, unlike in years past when he could collect these big passing totals with checkdowns and YAC, all of Purdy's success this season is with downfield completions. Arizona, who runs a three-safety defense, actually makes downfield catches pretty tricky.

This will be a running game for the 49ers. Meanwhile, the Cardinals, so long as they get Trey McBride back as expected, will have success on the ground against a suspect 49ers rush defense.