Andrei Iosivas [1296x729]
Andrei Iosivas [1296x729] (Credit: Katie Stratman-Imagn Images)

Plus value prop bets for Week 5 Anytime TDs sacks and more

We're betting to win.

And if I'm the one doing the betting, there are two keys I need to have the confidence to place the wager:

A model-backed approach, or at the very least a quantitative-based angle. But almost all the bets in this column will be based on the outputs of models built by me, or occasionally my colleagues at ESPN Analytics. A less efficient market. NFL sides and totals are voluminous markets, and betting against those mainstream numbers is like wagering on All-Madden mode. It's why I often look to props (especially on defense!) and alternate lines. Less attention means less efficient markets and therefore more opportunities to find value.

Those two criteria make up the crux of this weekly column, though occasionally I'll recommend bets that satisfy one criterion or the other. Each week I'll post bets from our models in mostly lower-visibility categories with the simple goal of coming out ahead. We'll be looking at odds all across the spectrum, from -1000 to 100-1 -- as far as I'm concerned, value is value no matter the price.

Results for this season can be found at the bottom of this story.

Let's dive into Week 5.

Defensive player props Jamel Dean (TB) under 5.5 tackles + assists (+110)

Last week, Dean had the highest tackle prop among outside corners this season, at 6.5 and -110 to the under. It's dropped almost a full tackle but I'm still on the under here, projecting just 4.2 combined tackles for him Thursday night. This is still a very high line -- among the 83 past tackle lines for outside corners this year, 70 of them had a line of 4.5 or lower. Among the 5.5s, this is the most heavily shaded toward the over.

There is a reason Dean's line is high; among outside corners with at least 300 snaps since the start of last season he ranks fifth in tackle rate against pass plays (12%) and 25th against run plays (7%). But the model knows all of that, and it still believes this line is far too high.

Quinnen Williams (NYJ) under 0.5 sacks (-155)

My sack model tends to like unders on defensive tackles relative to the betting market, so from the jump I'd have guessed it would lean that direction on Williams.

The real key here is that Williams' pass rushing numbers are down this season, as he has just one sack and, crucially, just a 3% pass rush win rate which is way off the 15% he posted last year. My model is at -265 here.

See also:

Jessie Bates III (ATL) under 6.5 tackles + assists (-115) Alternate receiving yards Andrei Iosivas (CIN) 30+ receiving yards (+130)

Even though Tee Higgins returned to the lineup for the past two games, Iosivas is still seeing plenty of playing time as he's run a route on 77% of the Bengals' dropbacks over the past two weeks.

The fact that this is a higher total game and the Ravens have a good rush defense, thus pushing their opponents to throw more, gives the model confidence in Iosivas to hit the over here. It makes the fair price -110.

See also:

Jordan Addison (MIN) 60+ receiving yards (+250) Running back receptions and receiving yards Breece Hall (NYJ) under 29.5 receiving yards (-125)

In the past, I've written in this space how I believe man coverage rates are not accurately reflected in running back reception props. Today I'm adding a new wrinkle: blitz rates.

Since 2020, running backs catch a pass on 14% of dropbacks that do not face the blitz, but only 8% of dropbacks with the blitz. Presumably, this is because they often stay in to block in these situations. In backtesting, I found this did not seem to be fully baked in to receiving yards markets and that when facing the highest blitzing teams, the receiving yards under for running backs won more often.

The sample was not huge, I should caution, but it's enough for me to bet Hall's under here against the Vikings, who blitz at the second-highest rate (42%) in the league.

Anytime touchdowns Nico Collins (HOU) to score a touchdown (+110)

My touchdown model has been bullish on Collins from the jump this season, and I'm particularly inclined to bet on him because that model does not even incorporate our player-tracking based receiver scores which adore Collins.

He has the highest overall score of any player and, crucially, an 83 open score which is a big jump from last season. Last week, Collins' anytime touchdown price was -110, so we're getting a more favorable price, and my model makes the fair market price an aggressive -137.

Alternate total Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders under 44.5 (-125)

FPI+'s take here has actually very little about disliking the offenses (or liking the defenses) in question. Instead, it has to do with the interaction between the spread and total itself, in a way that -- I'll be honest -- I don't fully grasp. But my colleague, sports data scientist Dylan Mervis, the creator of this model, does. Essentially, because the game has a three-point spread, the model expects less scoring variance than a game with a less common spread might have.

Due to this, the model expects the numbers around the normal 43.5 total (so 43 and 44) to have outsized importance relative to what the betting market believes. As such, FPI+ sees value in under 44.5 at this price, allowing us to win with a score total of both 43 and 44, and does not see value at more extreme alternate total prices.

Past results

Past results for this season are below. I wrote about the rules I set for myself regarding line movement and adding props in Week 1's column.