NFL betting Under-the-radar props to bet in Week 5
Seth Walder utilizes his analytics model to discover props with value for Week 5 of the NFL season
Plus value prop bets for Week 5 Anytime TDs sacks and more
We're betting to win.
And if I'm the one doing the betting, there are two keys I need to have the confidence to place the wager:
A model-backed approach, or at the very least a quantitative-based angle. But almost all the bets in this column will be based on the outputs of models built by me, or occasionally my colleagues at ESPN Analytics.
A less efficient market. NFL sides and totals are voluminous markets, and betting against those mainstream numbers is like wagering on All-Madden mode. It's why I often look to props (especially on defense!) and alternate lines. Less attention means less efficient markets and therefore more opportunities to find value.
Those two criteria make up the crux of this weekly column, though occasionally I'll recommend bets that satisfy one criterion or the other. Each week I'll post bets from our models in mostly lower-visibility categories with the simple goal of coming out ahead. We'll be looking at odds all across the spectrum, from -1000 to 100-1 -- as far as I'm concerned, value is value no matter the price.
Results for this season can be found at the bottom of this story.
Let's dive into Week 5.
Defensive player props
Jamel Dean (TB) under 5.5 tackles + assists (+110)
Last week, Dean had the highest tackle prop among outside corners this season, at 6.5 and -110 to the under. It's dropped almost a full tackle but I'm still on the under here, projecting just 4.2 combined tackles for him Thursday night. This is still a very high line -- among the 83 past tackle lines for outside corners this year, 70 of them had a line of 4.5 or lower. Among the 5.5s, this is the most heavily shaded toward the over.
There is a reason Dean's line is high; among outside corners with at least 300 snaps since the start of last season he ranks fifth in tackle rate against pass plays (12%) and 25th against run plays (7%). But the model knows all of that, and it still believes this line is far too high.
Quinnen Williams (NYJ) under 0.5 sacks (-155)
My sack model tends to like unders on defensive tackles relative to the betting market, so from the jump I'd have guessed it would lean that direction on Williams.
The real key here is that Williams' pass rushing numbers are down this season, as he has just one sack and, crucially, just a 3% pass rush win rate which is way off the 15% he posted last year. My model is at -265 here.
See also:
Jessie Bates III (ATL) under 6.5 tackles + assists (-115)
Alternate receiving yards
Andrei Iosivas (CIN) 30+ receiving yards (+130)
Even though Tee Higgins returned to the lineup for the past two games, Iosivas is still seeing plenty of playing time as he's run a route on 77% of the Bengals' dropbacks over the past two weeks.
The fact that this is a higher total game and the Ravens have a good rush defense, thus pushing their opponents to throw more, gives the model confidence in Iosivas to hit the over here. It makes the fair price -110.
See also:
Jordan Addison (MIN) 60+ receiving yards (+250)
Running back receptions and receiving yards
Breece Hall (NYJ) under 29.5 receiving yards (-125)
In the past, I've written in this space how I believe man coverage rates are not accurately reflected in running back reception props. Today I'm adding a new wrinkle: blitz rates.
Since 2020, running backs catch a pass on 14% of dropbacks that do not face the blitz, but only 8% of dropbacks with the blitz. Presumably, this is because they often stay in to block in these situations. In backtesting, I found this did not seem to be fully baked in to receiving yards markets and that when facing the highest blitzing teams, the receiving yards under for running backs won more often.
The sample was not huge, I should caution, but it's enough for me to bet Hall's under here against the Vikings, who blitz at the second-highest rate (42%) in the league.
Anytime touchdowns
Nico Collins (HOU) to score a touchdown (+110)
My touchdown model has been bullish on Collins from the jump this season, and I'm particularly inclined to bet on him because that model does not even incorporate our player-tracking based receiver scores which adore Collins.
He has the highest overall score of any player and, crucially, an 83 open score which is a big jump from last season. Last week, Collins' anytime touchdown price was -110, so we're getting a more favorable price, and my model makes the fair market price an aggressive -137.
Alternate total
Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders under 44.5 (-125)
FPI+'s take here has actually very little about disliking the offenses (or liking the defenses) in question. Instead, it has to do with the interaction between the spread and total itself, in a way that -- I'll be honest -- I don't fully grasp. But my colleague, sports data scientist Dylan Mervis, the creator of this model, does. Essentially, because the game has a three-point spread, the model expects less scoring variance than a game with a less common spread might have.
Due to this, the model expects the numbers around the normal 43.5 total (so 43 and 44) to have outsized importance relative to what the betting market believes. As such, FPI+ sees value in under 44.5 at this price, allowing us to win with a score total of both 43 and 44, and does not see value at more extreme alternate total prices.
Past results
Past results for this season are below. I wrote about the rules I set for myself regarding line movement and adding props in Week 1's column.
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["Jimenez's flick allows Pereira to give Fulham lead? Raul Jimenez has the assist of the season in the bag as his flick sets up \nAndreas Pereira in front of goal to give Fulham an early 1-0 lead","Football fans in awe of Raul Jimenez's 'pure filth' assist that stunned Man \nCity? Football fans were left in awe of the 'greatest Premier League assist ever' \nas Raul Jimenez stunned Manchester City with a cheeky backheel","Russell Martin questions Southampton players\u2019 character following \nBournemouth defeat - The Athletic? Southampton manager Russell Martin questioned his side's character \nfollowing their 3-1 defeat by Bournemouth at the Vitality Stadium on","Southampton debacle leaves promoted trio winless, but all is not lost? LONDON (Reuters) - Southampton might have targeted Monday's short trip \nalong the south coast to Bournemouth as the moment to make their","Evanilson off the mark in Bournemouth win over Southampton? Bournemouth's record signing Evanilson scored his first goal for the club \nas the Cherries beat Southampton 3-1 on Monday.","Martin slams Southampton after 5th loss of season? Southampton coach Russell Martin hammered his side for their lack of \nfighting spirit during the 3-1 away defeat to south-coast rivals","Bournemouth news: Opinion - Fan on Saints v Cherries rivalry? Bournemouth's relationship with Southampton is strange. With the Saints' \ntraditionally having a rivalry with Portsmouth, any kind of","Southampton captain admits collective responsibility after unacceptable \nperformance? Southampton are now looking forward to the massive Arsenal away fixture at \nthe weekend before the return of the international break.","Bournemouth 'on track' as Southampton stall? Bournemouth's stadium announcer Mike Botto found some unlikely national \nattention on social media after Monday's 3-1 win over Southampton.","Martin rallies \"soft\" Saints for Arsenal battle? Smarting after a gutless 3-1 defeat by Bournemouth, Southampton manager \nRussell Martin says the task ahead of Saturday's trip to high-flying","Cook says Semenyo has \"got another level\" after fantastic form for \nBournemouth? He notched a sensational goal in a 3-1 win over Southampton in the Premier \nLeague. Advertisement. Advertisement.","Evanilson off the mark as Cherries spank Saints? AFC Bournemouth's record signing Evanilson on Monday scored his first goal \nfor the club as the Cherries beat Southampton 3-1 in the English","Preview: Al-Nassr vs. Al Orubah - prediction, team news, lineups? This weekend's Saudi Pro League clash between Al-Nassr and Al Orubah is set \nto be a thrilling encounter, with the high-flying hosts aiming","Al-Nassr vs Al Orobah Live Football Streaming For Saudi Pro League 2024-25 \nMatch: How to Watch NSSR vs ORO? Here you will get the details of how to livestream the Al Nassr vs Al \nOrobah Saudi Pro League 2024-25. Also check which website, app, and","Will Cristiano Ronaldo play tonight in SPL? How to watch Al-Nassr vs \nAl-Orobah live streaming?? Yes, Cristiano Ronaldo is available to play in the upcoming match against \nAl-Orobah as he eyes to play club football after his incredible","Al-Nasr duo excluded from the Al-Orouba match? Al-Nasr coach Stefano Pioli made the decision to exclude the team's duo \nfrom.","Pioli intent on keeping Al Nassr flying, while colossal clash in Jeddah? Matchweek 6 of the 2024-25 Roshn Saudi League concludes on Saturday with Al \nNassr's lead stars in fabulous form, and a marquee match closing out the \naction.","Al-Nassr vs Al-Orobah LIVE Score Updates, Stream Info and How to Watch \nSaudi Pro League Match? Tune in here Al-Nassr vs Al-Orobah Live Score. Do not miss a detail of the \nmatch with the live updates and commentaries of VAVEL.","Where to watch Al Nassr vs. Al Orobah: Ronaldo live stream, TV channel, \nstart time, lineups, prediction for Saudi Pro League match? Al Nassr will hope to make it five wins in a row in all competitions when \nthey host Al Orobah in a Saudi Pro League game on Saturday.","Is Cristiano Ronaldo Playing Tonight for Al Nassr vs Al Orobah?? After some AFC Champions League action, Al Nassr is back to basics. The \nKnights of the Najd return to pitch for their Saudi Pro League clash","Al-Nassr vs Al-Orobah Prediction, lineups, betting tips & odds? Al Nassr will be back in league action after their AFC Championship League \nwin over Al Rayyan. After their underwhelming start to the season","\u201cHe\u2019s turned into Al-Nassr\u2019s Rashford\u201d, \u201cGet him outta here\u201d - Fans furious \nwith \u2018fraud\u2019 playing alongside Cristiano Ronaldo in line-up vs Al-Orobah? Al-Nassr fans have criticized Stefano Pioli's decision to name Talisca \nalongside Cristiano Ronaldo in the side's starting XI against","Kalvin Phillips: Pep Guardiola 'overweight' comments left midfielder \n'frustrated'? Kalvin Phillips says that \"narratives\" which followed former manager Pep \nGuardiola's comments about his weight left him feeling","I loved my time at Man City despite Pep weight comments - but it was \ndraining and I had to get out? \"Obviously, I'd never expect myself to be down here, but yeah, it just \nhappened,\" says a nonchalant Kalvin Phillips, opening up for the","West Ham v Ipswich: Kalvin Phillips chats Hammers loan spell? Ipswich's Kalvin Phillips has spoken about his loan spell at West Ham on \nthe latest episode of My Mate's A Footballer with Leeds striker","\u201cI\u2019m not joking\u201d \u2013 Kalvin Phillips shares incredible Marcelo Bielsa \ntraining routine at Leeds United? Former Leeds United midfielder Kalvin Phillips has shared further insight \ninto the rigorous training methods employed by Marcelo Bielsa at","Man City flop Kalvin Phillips makes fresh confession on Pep\u2019s \u2018overweight\u2019 \njibe and details negative impact on career? Manchester City loanee Kalvin Phillips says he was \"frustrated\" with the \n\"narratives\" that followed him in the wake of manager Pep Guardiola","Martin Keown claims Pep Guardiola made a big mistake with \u00a345m Man City \nplayer? After Kalvin Phillips recently revealed that Guardiola's comments on him \nbeing overweight after the 2022 World Cup frustrated him,","Phillips feeling the love at Ipswich after negative West Ham experience, \nsays McKenna? Kalvin Phillips is benefitting from being in a positive environment at \nIpswich Town, says manager Kieran McKenna. The former Leeds and","Patrick Bamford and Kalvin Phillips on same page over Leeds United icon \nMarcelo Bielsa? Get the latest Leeds United news delivered straight to your inbox each day \n- sign up for free email updates. More Newsletters. Subscribe","Kalvin Phillips shares the truth on what really happened regarding infamous \nspat with West Ham fan? The 28-year-old has now joined Ipswich Town on loan from Man City. And \nPhillips will have to face the Hammers fans at the London Stadium","Kalvin Phillips claims 'every club asked about his weight' after Pep \nGuardiola labelled him 'overweight' - as Man City outcast reveals he is \nback to his Leeds level at Ipswich? Phillips expressed frustration at a 'narrative' that grew over his fitness \nlevels; The midfielder is seeking to reignite his career during a loan \nspell at","Man United fans leave early and boo the players after 3-0 humbling at home \nto Tottenham? MANCHESTER, England (AP) \u2014 By the time Dominic Solanke slid in Tottenham's \nthird goal, some Manchester United fans had seen enough.","Ipswich Town vs. Aston Villa EPL Prediction \u2013 Sunday, September 29? Week 6 of the English Premier League concludes on Sunday, September 29, \nwith a matchup between 17th-place Ipswich Town and third-place Aston","Unai Emery frustrated Villa could not go joint top after being held by \nIpswich? Unai Emery acknowledged Aston Villa's 2-2 draw at Ipswich was a fair \nresult, but had hoped they would end the day joint-top of the Premier","Villa denied as Delap sparkles in Ipswich draw? Aston Villa missed the chance to go second in the Premier League as Liam \nDelap's double rescued Ipswich in a 2-2 draw at Portman Road on","Aston Villa draw ahead of hosting Bayern in Champions League? Aston Villa were held to a 2-2 draw away at promoted Ipswich Town in the \nEnglish Premier League four days before Bayern visit Villa Park in the \nChampions","Dermot Gallagher has 'lucky' Aston Villa theory in Stuart Attwell and \nIpswich Town controversy? Aston Villa were held to a 2-2 draw at Portman Road but not everyone was \nhappy with the performance of the referee.","Ipswich news: Opinion - Who can back up Liam Delap's goalscoring efforts?? 'Liam Delap ole ole!' rang out across Portman Road on Sunday afternoon, as \nthe Ipswich Town faithful acknowledged another goalscoring impact","Ipswich have 'so many positives to take' from Villa draw - McKenna? Kieran McKenna saluted his players after Ipswich Town extended their \nunbeaten run to four games by salvaging a point against Aston Villa.","Extended HLs: Ipswich Town v. Aston Villa MWK 6? Liam Delap's double helped lead Ipswich Town to a pivotal point in a 2-2 \ndraw against Aston Villa at Portman Road Stadium in Matchweek 6.","Defensive problems exposed again as Villa drop points away at Ipswich Town? Aston Villa dropped points for just the second time this season as they \nwere held to a 2-2 draw by Premier League new boys Ipswich Town.","It's WAR! England and Portugal call-up Wolves striker Mane to U18 squads? The striker also qualifies for Portugal and at the same time has been \nincluded in their U18 call this week.","Premier League starlet is embroiled in bizarre international row after \nbeing called up by both England AND Portugal Under 18s - on the same day!? A Premier League youngster has been called up by England and Portugal; The \nprospect is eligible for both countries and will decide who to play for","Wolves star caught up in bizarre international row after he\u2019s called up by \nboth England AND Portugal U18s o...? MATEUS MANE is in a bizarre country vs country row - after being called up \nby TWO nations.Club vs country spats are commonplace,","England face awkward conversation after player called up by two countries \nfor the same international break? England benefitted from a similar situation when Jack Grealish and Declan \nRice chose to play for the Three Lions.","Premier League star sparks bizarre international row after being called up \nby England and Portugal...? A Premier League talent is embroiled in a tug-of-war between two countries \nafter being called up twice for international duty.","Soccer-Portugal call up same player named in England Under-18 squad? Mane was called up for a second successive England youth camp by coach Liam \nBramley before the team travel to Marbella for a four-team tournament this \nmonth","Premier League starlet is embroiled in bizarre international row after \nbeing called up by both England AND Portugal Under 18s - on the same day!? A Premier League youngster has been called up by England and Portugal; The \nprospect is eligible for both countries and will decide who to play for","Coveted 2025 in-state recruiting target visiting Penn State for UCLA game? Penn State received a last-minute visit Saturday from one of its longtime \nhigh-priority recruiting targets \u2014 and it's a player committed","Weekly Penn State visitor spotlight: Nittany Lions hosting top cornerback \ntarget against UCLA? Lions247 takes a look at one of the most important prospects Penn State is \nset to host this weekend against UCLA and why fans should be monitoring \nhim","2026 Four-star Athlete From New Jersey To Visit Penn State This Weekend? One of New Jersey's top prospects in the 2026 recruiting class will be on \ncampus this weekend.","North Jersey standouts highlight latest additions to Penn State's \nrecruiting visitor list? Penn State's noon start time against UCLA will cut down on the visitor list \ndue to time constraints. Still, some top names have confirmed.","Penn State Football Recruiting: Nittany Lions hosting two more prospects \ncommitted elsewhere on Saturday? Lions247 has confirmed that a pair of Penn State's flip targets have \narrived on campus for Saturday's matchup with UCLA.","TBT: Penn State and UCLA projected starters as recruits? One of Happy Valley Insider's weekly game preview pieces is our Throwback \nThursday piece, where we compare the Penn State Football starters","Tyler's Tidbits: Latest look at expected visitors for UCLA + James Franklin \npays a visit to top flip target? Tyler's Tidbits provides the latest Penn State recruiting intel.","Top247 cornerback added to group of expected visitors for Penn State-UCLA? Nearly 30 recruits have shared their plans to attend Penn State's Saturday \nafternoon matchup with UCLA and the latest addition to the list","Which recruits are expected to attend Penn State-UCLA on Saturday?? Lions247 takes a look at the group of recruits expected to travel to State \nCollege on Saturday afternoon to watch Penn State as it hosts","Tyler's Tidbits: What is the latest on Penn State basketball's \ntop-remaining 2025 target?? Tyler's Tidbits provides the latest Penn State recruiting intel. Tyler \nCalvaruso Oct 2nd, 9:27 AM VIP","Getafe vs. Osasuna (Oct 5, 2024) Pregame? Pregame analysis and predictions of the Getafe vs. Osasuna Spanish Laliga \ngame to be played on October 5, 2024 on ESPN.","Getafe vs Osasuna: Match Preview and Predictions? October 5, 2024 17:15. Getafe. \"Coliseum\". La Liga 2024-25. Matchday \n9Getafe vs. Osasuna (Pamplona)Where to watch: MEGOGO,","Getafe vs Osasuna Prediction, 10\/5\/2024 La Liga Soccer Pick, Tips and Odds? Getafe is taking on Osasuna at 10:15 AM EST on Saturday, October 5, 2024. \nThe starting goalies are David Soria Getafe and Sergio Herrera","Getafe vs. Osasuna Prediction by Proven Computer Model [10\/5\/2024]? Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Getafe vs. Osasuna La Liga \ngame on October 5, 2024 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game","Preview: Getafe vs. Osasuna - prediction, team news, lineups? Osasuna will be aiming to make it three wins from their last four matches \nin La Liga when they continue their campaign with an away fixture","Getafe vs Osasuna Prediction and Betting Tips | 5th October 2024? The 2024-25 edition of La Liga is back in action with another set of \nmatches this weekend as Getafe take on an impressive Osasuna side in an","Getafe vs. Osasuna Prediction, Odds, La Liga Picks [10\/5\/2024]? La Liga action continues on Saturday, October 5 at 10:15AM ET as Osasuna \ntakes on Getafe at Estadio Coliseum."]
Southampton debacle leaves promoted trio winless, but all is not lost? LONDON (Reuters) - Southampton might have targeted Monday's short trip
along the south coast to Bournemouth as the moment to make their
Southampton captain admits collective responsibility after unacceptable
performance? Southampton are now looking forward to the massive Arsenal away fixture at
the weekend before the return of the international break.Evanilson off the mark as Cherries spank Saints? AFC Bournemouth's record signing Evanilson on Monday scored his first goal
for the club as the Cherries beat Southampton 3-1 in the English
Al-Nasr duo excluded from the Al-Orouba match? Al-Nasr coach Stefano Pioli made the decision to exclude the team's duo
from.
Is Cristiano Ronaldo Playing Tonight for Al Nassr vs Al Orobah?? After some AFC Champions League action, Al Nassr is back to basics. The
Knights of the Najd return to pitch for their Saudi Pro League clashI loved my time at Man City despite Pep weight comments - but it was
draining and I had to get out? "Obviously, I'd never expect myself to be down here, but yeah, it just
happened," says a nonchalant Kalvin Phillips, opening up for the
Martin Keown claims Pep Guardiola made a big mistake with £45m Man City
player? After Kalvin Phillips recently revealed that Guardiola's comments on him
being overweight after the 2022 World Cup frustrated him,
Kalvin Phillips claims 'every club asked about his weight' after Pep
Guardiola labelled him 'overweight' - as Man City outcast reveals he is
back to his Leeds level at Ipswich? Phillips expressed frustration at a 'narrative' that grew over his fitness
levels; The midfielder is seeking to reignite his career during a loan
spell atVilla denied as Delap sparkles in Ipswich draw? Aston Villa missed the chance to go second in the Premier League as Liam
Delap's double rescued Ipswich in a 2-2 draw at Portman Road on
Ipswich have 'so many positives to take' from Villa draw - McKenna? Kieran McKenna saluted his players after Ipswich Town extended their
unbeaten run to four games by salvaging a point against Aston Villa.
Premier League starlet is embroiled in bizarre international row after
being called up by both England AND Portugal Under 18s - on the same day!? A Premier League youngster has been called up by England and Portugal; The
prospect is eligible for both countries and will decide who to play forSoccer-Portugal call up same player named in England Under-18 squad? Mane was called up for a second successive England youth camp by coach Liam
Bramley before the team travel to Marbella for a four-team tournament this
month
2026 Four-star Athlete From New Jersey To Visit Penn State This Weekend? One of New Jersey's top prospects in the 2026 recruiting class will be on
campus this weekend.
Tyler's Tidbits: Latest look at expected visitors for UCLA + James Franklin
pays a visit to top flip target? Tyler's Tidbits provides the latest Penn State recruiting intel.Getafe vs. Osasuna (Oct 5, 2024) Pregame? Pregame analysis and predictions of the Getafe vs. Osasuna Spanish Laliga
game to be played on October 5, 2024 on ESPN.
Preview: Getafe vs. Osasuna - prediction, team news, lineups? Osasuna will be aiming to make it three wins from their last four matches
in La Liga when they continue their campaign with an away fixture