Fantasy playbook NFL Week 5 scores projections matchups

Why Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr s targets have fallen after first quarter

Welcome to the Fantasy Football Playbook for Week 5, which kicked off Thursday with the Buccaneers at the Falcons.

This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.

The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.

(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)

Jump to: NYJ-MIN | CAR-CHI | BAL-CIN | MIA-NE | CLE-WAS | IND-JAX  BUF-HOU | LV-DEN | ARI-SF | GB-LAR | NYG-SEA | DAL-PIT | NO-KC

Projected Score: Vikings 22, Jets 19

Lineup locks: Aaron Jones, Breece Hall, Justin Jefferson, Garrett Wilson

Sam Darnold has reeled off three consecutive top-10 fantasy weeks and paces the NFL with 11 passing TDs. Incredibly, Darnold has pulled this off despite ranking 20th in the league in passing attempts. Despite his early success, Darnold isn't yet a viable QB1 option. The 27-year-old has registered only 50 rushing yards and has a brutal Week 5 matchup against a Jets defense that has allowed the second-fewest passing yards and fantasy points to QBs. Granted, the schedule has been light, but New York has yet to allow a single QB to clear 11.5 fantasy points (none reached 23.0 points against them last season).

Over/Under: 40.6 (11th highest) Win Probability: Vikings 60% (9th highest)

Projected Score: Bears 19, Panthers 18

Lineup locks: D'Andre Swift, Chuba Hubbard, Diontae Johnson, DJ Moore

A Week 3 injury to Adam Thielen opened the door for a Week 4 Xavier Legette breakout and the rookie delivered. The first-round pick played on 60 snaps (most among Carolina receivers) and turned a career-high 10 targets into 66 yards and a score while also adding 10 yards on a pair of carries. Legette had played on only 54% of snaps during Weeks 1-3, so the boost in usage, coupled with Andy Dalton providing competent QB play, has him on the fantasy radar. This is a tough matchup (only one WR has reached 13.0 fantasy points against Chicago this season), but Legette is very much a flex option.

Over/Under: 36.9 (12th highest) Win Probability: Bears 55% (12th highest)

Projected Score: Ravens 28, Bengals 24

Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Derrick Henry, Ja'Marr Chase, Zay Flowers, Tee Higgins

Zack Moss (33 runs and 11 targets on 127 snaps) held a big edge in usage over Chase Brown (14, 6, 41) during Weeks 1-3, but things changed in Week 4. Moss still held a 36-26 edge in snaps, but both backs had 15 carries and the targets were nearly even as well (Moss 4, Brown 3). Brown is a capable pass-catcher and his 6.3 yards per carry tops all backs with 25-plus carries this season (Moss sits at 3.9). With a true committee forming, Moss is no more than a fringe RB2, whereas Brown is a deep-league flex option.

Over/Under: 51.4 (Highest) Win Probability: Ravens 63% (8th highest)

Projected Score: Dolphins 17, Patriots 15

Lineup locks: De'Von Achane, Rhamondre Stevenson, Tyreek Hill

Jaylen Waddle's season got off to a good start with 109 yards on five targets in Week 1, but the wheels have fallen off with Tua Tagovailoa sidelined. Waddle has a total of just 103 yards on 15 targets in his past three games, having failed to clear six targets or 41 yards in any of the outings. Waddle, who has yet to find the end zone this season, sits 47th in WR fantasy points. As long as Tagovailoa is out, Waddle will be best left on benches.

Over/Under: 32.4 (13th highest) Win Probability: Dolphins 56% (11th highest)

Projected Score: Commanders 27, Browns 20

Lineup locks: Jayden Daniels, Brian Robinson Jr., Terry McLaurin, Amari Cooper, David Njoku

Deshaun Watson has a plus matchup this week, as Washington has surrendered the most passing TDs (10) and the second-most QB fantasy points this season. Three QBs have reached 18-plus fantasy points against the Commanders, though Kyler Murray was held to 10.0 in Week 4. Despite the good matchup, Watson is tough to justify as a streamer considering he's yet to deliver any top-10 fantasy outings this season. He leads the league in dropbacks and has produced 20-plus rushing yards in all four games, but he's yet to reach 200 passing yards in any game and his 4.9 YPA is certifiably atrocious. Only consider him in 16-team leagues.

Over/Under: 47 (5th highest) Win Probability: Commanders 76% (2nd highest)

Projected Score: Colts 26, Jaguars 18

Lineup locks: Anthony Richardson, Jonathan Taylor, Travis Etienne Jr., Michael Pittman Jr., Brian Thomas Jr., Christian Kirk, Evan Engram

Josh Downs has enjoyed a massive 31% target share in his two games since returning from injury. The big usage didn't lead to much in his season debut (22 yards on five targets), but he went off for 82 yards and a score on nine targets last week. Downs was averaging 7.0 targets per game and sat 30th in WR fantasy points prior to suffering an injury in Week 9 least season, so it wouldn't be shocking to see him produce WR3/flex numbers moving forward. Indy's slot man is in a good spot this week against a Jaguars defense that sits top five in receptions, yards and fantasy points allowed to receivers.

Over/Under: 44.4 (8th highest) Win Probability: Colts 77% (Highest)

Projected Score: Bills 26, Texans 22

Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Joe Mixon, James Cook, Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, Dalton Kincaid

One week after being benched for a chunk of the game, Keon Coleman rebounded by pacing Buffalo's skill position players in both snaps (42) and air yards (77). Coleman was limited to 51 yards on four targets against Baltimore and has yet to clear those marks in any single game this season, but the boost in playing time is the evidence we need to keep the rookie on rosters. Coleman isn't yet a safe flex option, but that day will come this season if he remains a featured player in a good Buffalo offense.

Over/Under: 47.6 (4th highest) Win Probability: Bills 64% (7th highest)

Projected Score: Broncos 19, Raiders 12

Lineup locks: Brock Bowers

Denver has remained committed to Javonte Williams as its lead back and that seemed to finally pay some dividends on Sunday. Williams ran for 77 yards on 16 carries after totaling just 52 yards on 24 carries during Weeks 1-3. Despite the better showing, Williams has yet to find the end zone or produce more than 11.5 fantasy points in any single game this season. He has a good matchup this week against a Raiders defense that has allowed at least 15.5 fantasy points to the opposing lead back in all four games. Backs are averaging a league-high 5.4 yards per carry against Las Vegas. With only Jaleel McLaughlin as competition for work this week, Williams is on the RB2 radar.

Over/Under: 31.4 (14th highest) Win Probability: Broncos 73% (3rd highest)

Projected Score: 49ers 27, Cardinals 21

Lineup locks: Brock Purdy, Kyler Murray, Jordan Mason, James Conner, Deebo Samuel Sr., Marvin Harrison Jr., Brandon Aiyuk, Trey McBride, George Kittle

Although he did manage 88 yards in the game, Jauan Jennings fell back to earth last week, playing on 57% of 49ers snaps against the Patriots. Jennings went off for 175 yards and three touchdowns with Samuel and Kittle sidelined in Week 3, but was held to six targets with both of them back in Week 4. Jennings has now seen six or fewer targets in 36 of 39 games tracing back to the 2022 season opener. He's a risky flex option against Arizona this week.

Over/Under: 48.4 (3rd highest) Win Probability: 49ers 72% (4th highest)

Projected Score: Packers 27, Rams 22

Lineup locks: Jordan Love, Kyren Williams, Josh Jacobs, Jayden Reed

With Christian Watson set to miss time, three Packers -- Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks and Tucker Kraft -- move from bench options to potential fantasy starters.

Doubs has played on 81% of offensive snaps this season, and while he's yet to find the end zone or post any double-digit fantasy outings, his 17% target share aligns with where he was during his eight-TD 2023 campaign. Wicks exploded for 13 targets and 201 air yards last week, which allowed him 78 yards and a pair of touchdowns (he has three on the season). Kraft also found the end zone last week, having produced 53 yards on eight targets while playing on 85% of snaps.

Consider Doubs and Wicks to be WR3/flex options against a struggling Rams pass defense, whereas Kraft can be considered a TE1 against a Rams defense that has allowed a league-high 11.5 YPT and 94% catch rate to tight ends.

Over/Under: 48.7 (2nd highest) Win Probability: Packers 65% (6th highest)

Projected Score: Seahawks 24, Giants 19

Lineup locks: Kenneth Walker III, Malik Nabers, DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Wan'Dale Robinson currently sits fourth in targets (38) and fifth in receptions (26) among wide receivers. Despite the hefty 28% target share, the 2022 second-round pick is only 37th in receiving yards (194) and has one touchdown. Robinson, who sits 22nd in WR fantasy points, has only been used in the short area (4.4 aDOT) and rarely near the goal line (zero end zone targets). Robinson is on pace for 110 receptions, which can't be discounted in PPR, though he does have a tough Week 5 matchup against a Seattle defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest WR yards. Robinson is best valued as a WR3/flex.

Over/Under: 43.5 (10th highest) Win Probability: Seahawks 69% (5th highest)

Projected Score: Steelers 24, Cowboys 22

Lineup locks: Justin Fields, Dak Prescott, Najee Harris, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Jake Ferguson

Rico Dowdle out-snapped Ezekiel Elliott 24-9 in Week 4 and now holds a 112-79 edge for the season. The lead back role allowed Dowdle his first touchdown of the season last Thursday, but he's yet to clear 12 touches, 61 yards or 13.1 fantasy points in any game this season. Dowdle remains an uninspiring flex option -- and that's especially the case this week against a Steelers defense that has surrendered the second-fewest RB fantasy points (and only one RB touchdown).

Over/Under: 46.3 (6th highest) Win Probability: Steelers 57% (10th highest)

Projected Score: Chiefs 22, Saints 22

Lineup locks: Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Travis Kelce

Patrick Mahomes has fallen out of "lineup lock" territory. The superstar quarterback has now gone nine straight regular-season games without a top-12 fantasy outing. His last finish better than eighth was Week 7 of last season. Mahomes sits fifth in passing TDs (6) this season, but he's outside the top 10 at the position in passing attempts, passing yards, carries and rushing yards. Mahomes' last rushing score was during the 2022 season. Especially with Hollywood Brown and Rashee Rice sidelined, Mahomes is no more than a midrange QB2.

Kareem Hunt made his return to the Chiefs last week and immediately paced the backfield in snaps (25), carries (14) and targets (3). Samaje Perine (24 snaps) and Carson Steele (11) also saw the field, but that may not be the case moving forward if Clyde Edwards-Helaire is activated from the NFI list. Hunt is the safest play from this room Monday night, but it's very possible "CEH" takes over as lead back in short order. At the very least, a two-to-three man committee is possible.

With Rice sidelined, the Chiefs' WR room is as follows: Xavier Worthy (43 snaps in Week 4), Justin Watson (40), JuJu Smith-Schuster (30), Skyy Moore (13) and Mecole Hardman (8). At least for the moment, Worthy is the only player on the fantasy radar. The first-round rookie has yet to clear four targets in any game, but he found the end zone in both Weeks 1 and 4, and his role should increase with Rice and his massive target share no longer in the picture. Worthy is a WR3/flex option against a New Orleans defense that has allowed only one TD, but the seventh-most catches and yards to wide receivers.

Over/Under: 44.1 (9th highest) Win Probability: Chiefs 50% (14th highest)