NFL Week 4 predictions fantasy sleepers upset picks buzz

Sources Clips Mann agree on 3-year extension

We're headed into Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season, and we're sure you are fully prepared for the loaded slate. But just in case you need some last-minute intel, our NFL analysts have you covered at the 11th hour.

First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down five stat trends that could be pivotal this weekend. Fantasy football writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in fewer than 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues as of Saturday who could be picked up and started in a jam this weekend. That's followed by NFL analyst Matt Bowen pointing to five potential surprises that could happen and NFL analyst Ben Solak picking out one team on upset watch. Finally, insider Jeremy Fowler gives the latest buzz, rumors and news you might have missed.

Jump to a topic: Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers Potential surprises | Upset watch Latest buzz

Will someone on this Cincinnati defense help Trey Hendrickson slow down the suddenly hot Carolina offense?

Hendrickson is tied for second in pass rush win rate at edge (33%) with Aidan Hutchinson, just behind Myles Garrett (34.9%). But Hendrickson also has been doubled more than Garrett and Hutchinson, which is partly due to the Bengals not generating much pass rush elsewhere.

Sam Hubbard ranks second to last in PRWR at edge (5%). Defensive tackles B.J. Hill (8%, missed Week 3 with injury), Zach Carter (3%), Jay Tufele (4%) and Sheldon Rankins (0%, missed Week 3 with injury) are not cutting it, either. Carolina should be a get-right game for the Bengals' defense, but Hendrickson needs help from somewhere to take advantage.

Can Jordan Love beat Brian Flores' blitz-heavy defense?

The one thing everyone knows about the Vikings defense is that it will bring the blitz -- a lot. The Vikings have blitzed 41% of the time this season, which is second behind Denver. They've blitzed a league-high 48% of the time since the beginning of last season.

It's not certain that Love will play for Green Bay this week, as the QB recovers from a knee injury. But if he is out there, he has the perfect split to counter that blitz-heavy approach. Since the start of 2023, he has the fifth-best QBR (83) against blitz plays and the 12th-best QBR (62) against non-blitz plays. I'm not totally convinced this matters; splits don't always mean something. But for what it's worth, Love has positive splits for facing pressure vs. not facing pressure, and on quick passes as opposed to when he holds the ball. That's good news for the Packers against the Vikings.

Does Zak Zinter have a chance against Christian Wilkins?

Wilkins is off to a flying start as a Raider. The big-time free agent signing ranks third in run stop win rate (46%) among interior defenders, seemingly returning to his 2022 form when he led the category. Wilkins also ranks third in pass rush win rate leaguewide. Though he has only 0.5 sacks, those advanced metrics suggest that Wilkins will be a difficult matchup for Zinter, the Browns' 2024 third-round pick who will play at right guard in place of the injured Wyatt Teller. I'd bet we'll be seeing Wilkins in the backfield, getting hits on running backs and Cleveland quarterback Deshaun Watson.

How legitimate was Jauan Jennings' breakout game -- and can he repeat it against the Patriots?

We wrote last week that there were some positive signs in ESPN's receiver scores for Jennings in 2023, and the 49ers receiver turned in a dominant performance (175 yards for three touchdowns). One week later, we now have 2024 receiver scores available. The early returns on Jennings? Incredibly positive.

Jennings is behind only the Houston tandem of Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins in overall score -- a composite of open score, catch score and YAC score. Most importantly, he has produced a 74 open score (eighth highest), which is the easiest skill to repeat. So yes, I'm buying into Jennings as more than a one-hit wonder and think he'll produce again against New England.

Have we seen the real Seahawks defense yet?

I was bullish on Seattle entering the season under Mike Macdonald. If a coach showed a schematic advantage as a coordinator, like he did with Baltimore, that ought to be a good sign for his coaching career. And the Seahawks' defense is very promising so far as the league leader in defensive EPA per play.

But consider their opponents: the Broncos (Bo Nix's pro debut), the Patriots and the Skylar Thompson-led Dolphins. It doesn't get much easier than that. FPI actually says Seattle has had the second-easiest schedule behind the Chargers, who are second in defensive EPA per play. I'm not saying the Seahawks' defense won't be good, but I've got my eyebrow raised until it stops a good offense. Monday night's game against the Lions is the perfect test.

Darnold has surprised fantasy managers who saw him as an afterthought this summer. He scored 20 or more fantasy points in back-to-back games, showcasing his potential with Justin Jefferson as his No. 1 receiver. He has thrived this season with a clean pocket, which is promising against a Packers' defense that ranks 30th in pass rush win rate. Green Bay's defense has allowed an average of 15.6 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. That mark is likely Darnold's floor, not his ceiling.

Xavier Legette, WR, Carolina Panthers (22.9% rostered)

With Adam Thielen on injured reserve with a hamstring injury, Legette is set to see more snaps and targets. Last season at South Carolina, he averaged the eighth-most receiving yards per game in the nation (104.6). Legette is a dangerous threat because of his blend of 6-foot-3 size and speed. He should thrive in a Panthers offense that seems rejuvenated with Andy Dalton at quarterback. This could be his breakout performance against the Bengals.

Michael Wilson, WR, Arizona Cardinals (13.1% rostered)

Wilson's nine targets in Week 3 were encouraging. He had his second-best game of the season with eight receptions for 64 yards. He also had a similar number of snaps and routes run as Marvin Harrison Jr. The Commanders-Cardinals matchup should be high scoring, and Washington also gives up the most fantasy points to wide receivers. This makes Wilson an intriguing option if you need a boost in your lineup in deeper formats.

Roschon Johnson, RB, Chicago Bears (8.5% rostered)

Fowler wrote this week that Johnson could get an "extended look" in Week 4 with Chicago's rushing struggles. The Bears are 22nd in rushing attempts and 31st in rushing yards per game. If they get Johnson more involved, it could help turn things around. Johnson looked more decisive than any other Bears running back this season through his 12 touches against the Colts in Week 3. Johnson also leads the team in yards after contact per attempt and is facing a Rams defense that allows the eighth-most fantasy points per game to running backs.

Andy Dalton, QB, Carolina Panthers (7.3% rostered)

Dalton scored 24.5 fantasy points against the Raiders in Week 3, completing 70.3% of his passes. He's surrounded by playmakers, including Diontae Johnson. Now he faces his former team, the Bengals, at home. I'm all-in on the revenge game narrative, and you should be, too.

Josh Allen rushes for over 50 yards

Allen has produced two games with 39 or more rushing yards this season, and he is averaging 5.0 yards per run. Plus, this is a matchup where Allen will be forced to make second-reaction plays against a strong Ravens defense. Through three weeks, Allen has totaled nine rushing attempts on scrambles, and I believe he gets outside the pocket multiple times Sunday to advance the ball as a runner.

Marvin Harrison Jr. finds the end zone for the third straight game

Harrison has at least one touchdown reception in each of his past two games, and he has seen five end zone targets this season. Against the Commanders' defense -- which has already allowed nine touchdown passes and is giving up an average 255.7 yards passing per game (31st in the NFL) -- Harrison could easily add another score to his rookie resume.

Jared Verse sacks Caleb Williams

The Rams' rookie edge rusher out of Florida State notched his first sack in Week 1 (on Jared Goff), and he has eight pressures on the season. Look for Verse to sack Williams off a twist stunt as the Rams attack the interior of the Bears' offensive line. Chicago has allowed 13 sacks this season, which is tied for the third most in the NFL.

Bucky Irving scores his first career touchdown

Irving has seen at least nine carries in two of three games played this season, and he's averaging 6.2 yards per rush. He is playing fast on the tape, too. He can scoot. I'm expecting the rookie to find the end zone for the first time against an Eagles defense that's allowing 5.2 yards per carry (30th in the league).

Quinyon Mitchell snags his first career interception vs. Baker Mayfield

Mitchell has yet to record his first interception as a pro, but his six pass breakups are tied for the league lead with Cleveland's Denzel Ward. Given Mayfield's aggressive throwing mentality, I expect Mitchell to steal one here on Sunday in Tampa Bay. Mitchell secured six interceptions over his final two years at Toledo. 

Buffalo Bills (+2.5) at Baltimore Ravens 

The Bills have absolutely drubbed some bad defenses to start the season, so I understand hesitation to crown them an elite offense and weekly favorite. But is the Ravens' defense really enough to slow down this team?

The Ravens are excellent against the run but only average versus the pass. They'll need to flummox Allen back to his interception-throwing ways with coverage rotations and blitzes. If he continues to shred from the pocket (and outside of it as a scrambler), I expect the Bills to put up too many points for the Ravens and Lamar Jackson to match.

The Cowboys are looking at external options at pass rusher with Micah Parsons (high left ankle sprain) and DeMarcus Lawrence (right midfoot sprain) going down, but they will start in-house. They are hopeful Parsons will be back sooner rather than later. A source called him "week-to-week," and he will be pushing to get back before the Week 7 bye. Lawrence's absence is more open-ended, but it's not a season-ender. This is a big stretch for rookie Marshawn Kneeland, on whom the Cowboys are high. (As for external candidates, I'm told Haason Reddick of the Jets isn't a viable option via trade due to cost.)

Packers quarterback Jordan Love has practiced for two full weeks and is getting closer to a return, but Green Bay will likely make him a game-time decision. If he goes, he's expected to wear a brace to stabilize the sprained MCL in his left knee. But what if Green Bay plays two quarterbacks? I'm told the Vikings are at least preparing for all possibilities, including a package for Malik Willis, a talented runner.

San Francisco is trying to get respectably healthy. Tight end George Kittle (hamstring) was once considered 50-50 to play but finished the practice week strong and is now good to go. Receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. (questionable, calf) was expected to miss multiple weeks, but he has at least put himself in a position to play Sunday, missing just one week since the diagnosis.

The Eagles are bracing for Buccaneers rookie running back Bucky Irving to get an extended look Sunday, should he play. He's questionable with a hamstring issue. But Irving is averaging 6.2 yards per carry on 25 tries, and that workload could increase this weekend if he's healthy.

Saints receiver Chris Olave was a surprise addition to Friday's injury report with a hamstring issue. He's considered day-to-day. I sense optimism on his availability, at least as of late Friday. And the Saints hope he can go against Atlanta but will monitor his progress this weekend.